In this chart i will look what has happened and break down: -Best time to buy/sell Bitcoin -Percentage gains -What are things to consider for the next cycle -What have we learned from this cycle (3rd Halving)
If we look closely, we see that if we buy Bitcoin at the Halving on every 4 year cycle and hold for 1 year, we would have received the best return on our investment (of course, not counting if you bought in the very beginning and still holding). If you don't know what Bitcoin Halving is, please look it up because it is an important phenomenon.
What percentages have we seen over the past 3 Halving?
-1st Halving Bitcoin would have returned the most: ~10000% -2nd Halving would have returned: ~5000% -3rd Halving would have returned : ~800%
-What are things to consider for the next cycle/Halving? As you can see, every Halving the percentage gain decreases. This is true for everything. The early on investors take the biggest risks, but they have the highest rewards. How can we tell for sure that the cycle is over? No one can time the market so the best thing for an investor is to do it is own research and have a plan of when to enter and when to exit. People often asked me how did you do? Well, last time (2017) I was fooled and held and it crashed, but this time around i bought it early on and sold 75% at 50k and left the rest to run. All my friends keep joking about how I would miss the biggest profits because BTC would go to 100k or 300k. When it comes to trading or investment, profits are profits and we must take them along the way.
If the word: HOPE ever crosses our mind, it is time to sell or not enter the market at all. HOPE does not exist in trading. We must have a plan on when do we enter and when do we exit. You are in either for the long term and handle all the Ups and Downs or you are in for short term trading. You must find your niche.
-What have we learned from this cycle? For sure the biggest learning lesson for me came with which coins returned the most. Useless Coins with no purpose like Dogecoin, Shiba, Safemoon, etc returned the most if we followed the masses and got in and out.
What we will see in the next cycles will be the same. If we want to get 10x returns, we can scalp what is the news / reddit's / youtube's hottest topics and make some attempts to find another Coin that will boom. Small investments earlier on could return big time.
I also learned that when the masses are too excited about something, we need to be cautions. In the end 2017, the Winklevoss twins were all over the news how they became the first Crypto Billionaires and how we could also become Millionaires with Crypto. Shortly after, the dumping started.
This time around, I was prepared. Around April 2021, I was seeing every where discussions about how to turn 1k into 10k and 10k into 100k, Professionals quitting their jobs to become full time Crypto traders. When these type of news start circulating, we need to be cautions. I started slowing down my investments, taking more profits and started taking the backseat. We now see that the speculators are out and the bull market is over. Best now is to trade short term patterns and wait for the next big opportunity around May 2024.
How will I prepare myself for the next time around? One think that became very notable is the new Coins that were created since 2017: Ethereum, ADA, IOTA, BNB, Solana, etc. If we take Ethereum as an example, we notice that while Bitcoin returned ~800% this Halving Cycle, Eth returned ~1500% and ADA and BNB over 2000%. So what this tells us is that Alt coins will be the highest risks, but the highest rewards.
Another very interesting point to make is that 2014, 2018 and most likely 2022 will be the worse returning years for Crypto, however, as you can see in my Chart, I drew trendlines in Red that showed that once Price breaks the Trendlines Upwards, a new accumulation and cycle begins. So waiting for the trendlines to break would be the best time to start accumulating. It is also worth noting that even with good timing to enter the market, you can see in purple that no one can predict unexpected Events like the Coronavirus that pretty much tanked all the markets. Bitcoin dropped ~50% in a couple of weeks.
Successful Investing is the ability to manage risk and foresee possible opportunities in the near or further future, prepare ourselves and take the risk when the opportunity presents itself.
Invest safe and Happy trading.
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