Long
About Bitcoin - Building a case for why BTC still looks healthy
Updated
It is important to understand that as we go up in the long term, we will experience pullbacks. The area we pull back into is what matters. BTC will look healthy as long as we do not go below the psychological line in the sand, where a selloff starts and does not stop until the price is low or stable enough to create demand again. Please don't forget to Boost this idea.
So, why does BTC still look healthy after all the losses? After being rejected by the 50MA on the weekly chart, BTC has fallen back into the old consolidation pattern that started back in June of 2022. The longer this pattern continues, the higher BTC will go in the next months. Being back in this old rectangle is perfectly fine and does not indicate that the bull run that started on Jan 1st is over. If we go under this rectangle, that would be a cause for concern. For now, volume will confirm that more buying by institutions is happening.
[img]
[/img]
The slight rejection on the weekly timeframe is the one to follow at this point. How BTC behaves while here is telling us what will happen in the future. The rejection of the 50MA is perfectly fine. We went under, and it will take two or three attempts to go over it. Also, on the weekly chart, you can see that we have come out of the downtrend, which is a good sign. What we do not want to see is BTC closing too many times inside that downtrend. In fact, if BTC closes above the downtrend this week, it will be a very good indication of where we are headed once again.
[img]
[/img]
Looking at the weekly chart, you can see where BTC is currently stuck. Bitcoin stopped right at the 20MA and stopped going up once it hit the 50MA. This is the range that BTC is currently stuck in. Going any lower than the 20MA on the weekly chart would be a reason for concern.
[img]
[/img]
As mentioned before, going down while moving up is part of the process, and an unwritten rule is to retrace to either 50% or 61.8% in the Fibonacci scale before continuing to move up. BTC finds itself right between those two numbers. No asset has ever just moved up without pulling back 50 to 61.8%. BTC has now done exactly that, and it is now free to continue moving up. It may consolidate some more, range, or move down a bit more, but as of now, BTC has clearance to take off again.
[img]
[/img]
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
So, why does BTC still look healthy after all the losses? After being rejected by the 50MA on the weekly chart, BTC has fallen back into the old consolidation pattern that started back in June of 2022. The longer this pattern continues, the higher BTC will go in the next months. Being back in this old rectangle is perfectly fine and does not indicate that the bull run that started on Jan 1st is over. If we go under this rectangle, that would be a cause for concern. For now, volume will confirm that more buying by institutions is happening.
[img]
The slight rejection on the weekly timeframe is the one to follow at this point. How BTC behaves while here is telling us what will happen in the future. The rejection of the 50MA is perfectly fine. We went under, and it will take two or three attempts to go over it. Also, on the weekly chart, you can see that we have come out of the downtrend, which is a good sign. What we do not want to see is BTC closing too many times inside that downtrend. In fact, if BTC closes above the downtrend this week, it will be a very good indication of where we are headed once again.
[img]
Looking at the weekly chart, you can see where BTC is currently stuck. Bitcoin stopped right at the 20MA and stopped going up once it hit the 50MA. This is the range that BTC is currently stuck in. Going any lower than the 20MA on the weekly chart would be a reason for concern.
[img]
As mentioned before, going down while moving up is part of the process, and an unwritten rule is to retrace to either 50% or 61.8% in the Fibonacci scale before continuing to move up. BTC finds itself right between those two numbers. No asset has ever just moved up without pulling back 50 to 61.8%. BTC has now done exactly that, and it is now free to continue moving up. It may consolidate some more, range, or move down a bit more, but as of now, BTC has clearance to take off again.
[img]
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Note
4-day old idea and it aged beautifully well. [img]
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.