For The Bulls...

Updated

I am now under the impression Minutte Wave 4 is now complete, and price action now resides in Minutte Wave 5.

If this trade plays out, I will look towards it as a confirmation of my overall count and current bearish sentiment.

Note

If Minutte Wave 4 is complete. Our Micro Count Invalidation number moves to 27280.

Note

Here is a break down of how I think this next week will play out.

Price action will probably hit my entry of 27462.39 at least twice. On completion of the final leg down price action will retrace.

I believe Subminette Wave 3 will more than likely be extended (2.618 FIB) given market sentiment, however, the standard Wave 3 measurement is 28172.66 (1.618 FIB).

You can probably keep this position open close to the end of the month, if not, early into next, or, play it safe, TP and avoid funding.

Decision is yours.

Trade Safe.

Chart:

Note

Final numbers. If this trade holds, it becomes validation for this count.

Trade active

Note

The new Micro Count Invalidation is 27349. Move stop to in accordance with your risk matrix.

Trade closed: stop reached

Click here for a full debrief of this trade.

Note

Complex, Complex Corrections: Updated Minutte Wave 4 Count

If you don't understand it, I believe a long with 0.5% stop to 28500 is what I consider a medium risk trade from here.

Trade active

Note

Stop moved to break even.

Note

Micro Count Invalidation moved to 26693. This actives on completion of Micro Wave 3, at which point stop will be updated to reflect invalidation number + spread.

Chart:

Note

Validated the count on a smaller time frame, and moved the Micro Count invalidation number back to 26533, stop remains at break even.

Chart:

Note

If you are not in, I would jump on the train now...

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If you are not in here, wait...

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Last chance for a profitable long in a while...

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Move stop to Count Invalidation + Spread, on completion of Micro Wave 3.

Chart:

Note

I have been on the lower time frames validating the count and have concluded price action now resides in Minutte Wave 3.

Chart:[\b]

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Ugh, so many complicated corrections. I am pretty sure the bottom is in here, but also think there is one more move down.

Chart:

Note

Stop at Micro Count Invalidation

Note

I doubt it is a complicated correction, think it was a double Zig Zag, but I will keep my eye on it, I think that impulse was the next Wave 1.

Chart:

Note

I know if you are in a position based on this TA you are hoping I know something about EWT. I don't know everything, and I could be wrong, in fact, if the bottom is not in, my count is wrong and I need to evaluate my bigger picture. However, I do think the bottom is in, therefore, you can use this as a stop minus your spread.

Trade safe.

Chart:

Note

It is looking safer, and safer...

Chart:

Note

There it is... We should break the local top on this move...

Chart:

Note

Stop has been moved back to break even.

Note

Once we cross the green line, bullish sentiment has been established.

Chart:

Note

Bullish Sentiment Established.

Chart:

Note

Stop Moved back to Count Invalidation - Spread.

Price action looks like it is forming a 1-2, 1-2, indicating an expanded Subminutte Wave 3 is forming.

Chart:

Note

Topside target: 30367.63

Note

Give it one more significant pull back before everyone else works out what we have here...

Chart:

Note

Possible Triangle in play, this indicates uncertainty in market sentiment. It will not effect much in the bigger picture other than how long this move takes to play out.

Chart:

Note

No triangle... It was a 1-2, 1-2, of an expanded Wave 3

Note

26818 with a 1% stop if you are not in

Note

Looks like a Triangle is forming, I will continue to monitor and update a chart shortly. If this is a Triangle, it will be a great opportunity for entry if you are not in, we pop on completion.

Note

If this is a Triangle, Wave D has not formed yet so the full thrust can not be established, this is and estimate based on a standard Contracting Triangle.

Stop at the local bottom is safe, if we break that number I am wrong, and something else is going on.

I am only providing entry here, it is too soon for me to think about TP targets, or, position close. I need more structure.

Chart:

Note

Entry: 26710
S/L: 26544 - Spread

Chart:

Note

It was a 1-2, 1-2. If you are not in, this is a good place to enter with a stop at 26981 - spread. I will update with a chart shortly.

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How does this level of TA only have 18 boosts?

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Last update here. Top side target is now 30751, which gives PA 3% of movement before my count invalidation number

Do with this information what you will TP, close, move stop, short, ect.

Thank you for following this trade.

Chart:

Trade closed: target reached

There will be one more trade similar to this in this set.

Enjoy your profits!

Chart:

Note

I think the top is in if you are still in a long... If the Micro invalidation breaks, there will be one more top.

Chart:

JMSBurton

Also on:

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BTC Week 1 Analysis—October 2023

by JMSBurton

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