BTC bounce soon at crucial support?
Updated
BTC is currently holding at some rather crucial support from the long term trend (white line).
On the positive side, support has not definitively broken on price nor RSI, so very well might bounce (although it is right at the precipice, so there is understandable concern here). There is also still the possibility that this is still just retracement at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the latest uptrend. Additionally, if a bounce occurs here, there is a possibility it could head upward into an inverse head and shoulders (green triangles) and further head upward.
On the less positive side, since this is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, even an increase upward has the potential to hit a new all-time high but looks very close to a three-drive bearish pattern as well. Additionally, MACD is heading the negative direction as well so it well might continue. And of course, this support line is so crucial such that such a break could easily send the price into a longer term bearish trend that can last for some time now.
There are possibilities that this could be a result of the PI Indicator or ALT season causing FOMO at max pain (for example, thanks to DOGE), but I would be somewhat surprised that the fall here would come without as many heavy handed indicators into oversold territory as well as the fact that this is not a flash crash, but it is quite possible that such a crash could occur soon (particularly if stops soon trigger).
Although things looks fairly scary right now, I feel there are so many positive trends needing to continue on alts that this very well could possibly be a retracement and bounce soon (until the trend shows otherwise). However, I would still suggest to never take my opinion as advice (both now or ever) as I could easily be wrong. But if you strongly feel otherwise, I would love to hear your thoughts, so please like this article if you agree or leave a comment as to why if you don't. Either way, this looks like a very crucial point to watch if a downward trend continues from here, as it might take a while to recover if that is the case and might propel the price near crash levels.
On the positive side, support has not definitively broken on price nor RSI, so very well might bounce (although it is right at the precipice, so there is understandable concern here). There is also still the possibility that this is still just retracement at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the latest uptrend. Additionally, if a bounce occurs here, there is a possibility it could head upward into an inverse head and shoulders (green triangles) and further head upward.
On the less positive side, since this is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, even an increase upward has the potential to hit a new all-time high but looks very close to a three-drive bearish pattern as well. Additionally, MACD is heading the negative direction as well so it well might continue. And of course, this support line is so crucial such that such a break could easily send the price into a longer term bearish trend that can last for some time now.
There are possibilities that this could be a result of the PI Indicator or ALT season causing FOMO at max pain (for example, thanks to DOGE), but I would be somewhat surprised that the fall here would come without as many heavy handed indicators into oversold territory as well as the fact that this is not a flash crash, but it is quite possible that such a crash could occur soon (particularly if stops soon trigger).
Although things looks fairly scary right now, I feel there are so many positive trends needing to continue on alts that this very well could possibly be a retracement and bounce soon (until the trend shows otherwise). However, I would still suggest to never take my opinion as advice (both now or ever) as I could easily be wrong. But if you strongly feel otherwise, I would love to hear your thoughts, so please like this article if you agree or leave a comment as to why if you don't. Either way, this looks like a very crucial point to watch if a downward trend continues from here, as it might take a while to recover if that is the case and might propel the price near crash levels.
Note
Well I was certainly wrong about staying positive here. Indeed the stops look to have triggered. Should be interesting to see how far it goes before retracement, but indeed it looks like things are headed downward for a while soon. I'll update with expectations once a trend looks to form.
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