Second daily closing in a row below the KIJUN-SEN (KS) !
As mentioned in my yesterday's analysis, a failure to recover and close above the KIIJUN-SEN, which is now @ 43'549 would increase the risk for further downside in putting the focus for the next support area around 41279, being the weekly TENKAN-SEN (or conversion line), ahead of the psychological 40'000 level which also coincides with the daily clouds (very thin !) support area.
Once again, THE KIJUN-SEN remains the KEY PIVOT LEVEL TO THE UPSIDE and as long as the BTC remains below this level, the downside riks will remain.
A successful recovery (daily closing level) above the KIJUN-SEN would reopen the door for the CLUSTER of MBB and TS, currently @ 44'800 ahead of the ongoing downtrend resistance line around 45'750.
RSI below 50, @ 45.29 and LAGGING LINE moving above the clouds in a sideways mode.
CONCLUSION :
2 levels to watch
UPSIDE : 43'549 DOWNSIDE : 41'279
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently caught, in this H4 time frame, between the Tenkan-Sen @ 42'510 in support and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 43'028
RSI @ 39.07 and Lagging line moving in a sideways mode.
Consider MBB as a good barometer which worked perfectly well so far.
1 HOUR (H1)
No change in my view, monitor and watch closely at the CLOUDS, in resistance for now and watch the former short term double bottom reached before yesterday (bottom 1) and yesterday (bottom 2) around the 42'000 support area. Double bottom trigger level @ 42'645, filled and moved higher towards an intraday high of 42'900 before currently coming back (pullback) towards the double top trigger, which also coincides with the H1 Mid Bollinger band. A failure to hold and close on H1 basis above 42'645 would put the focus again to the 42'000 area first.
Looking briefly at the ongoing weekly picture, we can see the BTC, currently is still below the Mid Bollinger Band @ 43'746 and roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds support area.
RSI @ 47.61 and LAGGING LINE below both TS and KS and below the MBB too.
A failure to close on a weekly basis above the KIJUN-SEnN @ 41'279 would give an additional BEARISH SIGNAL, callng for lower level towards the bottom of the weekly clouds support @ 40'000 /38'000.
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