BitcoinLong
1.61 Break Starting to Look Likely.
Updated
BTC recently hit the 1.61 extension of the previous drop.
When this 1.61 is met in a breakout, there are three main things that tend to happen.
One is a reversal. Exceptional spikes ending at 1.61s can be found at the end of many trends. That would be a rare thing in this context, but it's always worth trailing stops at 1.61s.
A more common reaction at the 1.61 here is a pullback to spike under 1.27 and then the continuation move.
This was my first ever trade. For a long time I'd trade only this setup in Forex markets. Did really well in trends.. Range came. Sad times. Had to learn more stuff.
And the third thing that tends to happen in the featured chart here. If there's no notable resistance at 1.61, a very strong trend move to 2.20 comes. Usually from here we end up retesting the 1.61 or even 1.27, both of which are great buy levels.
I have a simple way of thinking about trading. There are various things the market can do that fit nicely inside of my "Norms" with fibs and such. When we're at big levels, I plan all the things that can happen inside my "Norms". Moves the market can make that my straits profit in - or at least stop me out in the right place. No spike outs, or unnecessary running losses.
In this setup I am ready to trade those three reactions. If any of them happen exactly as I described, I make bank. Many multiples of what I risk in a trade. If something else happens, my best outcome will be I do not trade, or any trades I do take I get some sort of breakeven result on. If the market does something I understand I hit it hard, and otherwise I just get out.
Given that 2/3 of my known reactions from a 1.61 are bearish (one of them just a dip, but a sizable one), I'll generally tend to fade 1.61s. 2/3 times it works. Can make over 1:3 RR. A lot of the time you get reactions off 1.61 before breaks and can maybe get risk off on shorts that'd not work out. Makes sense, takes a lot to discourage me from fading a 1.61 first touch.
Here's the hit of the 1.61.
Really big reaction off this. But in the bear setups here typically this retest off the 1.61 would be the kiss of death for the bull move.
Now, we have to have some tolerance for spike outs whenever we trade, and more so on stop hunting things like BTC. For the last couple days we've inside the tolerance zone for that.
This is starting to look more threatening for a legit break .
If the 1.61 is a non-event as resistance, the follow pop is impressive. Usually directly up to the 2.20. Around 140K.
When this 1.61 is met in a breakout, there are three main things that tend to happen.
One is a reversal. Exceptional spikes ending at 1.61s can be found at the end of many trends. That would be a rare thing in this context, but it's always worth trailing stops at 1.61s.
A more common reaction at the 1.61 here is a pullback to spike under 1.27 and then the continuation move.
This was my first ever trade. For a long time I'd trade only this setup in Forex markets. Did really well in trends.. Range came. Sad times. Had to learn more stuff.
And the third thing that tends to happen in the featured chart here. If there's no notable resistance at 1.61, a very strong trend move to 2.20 comes. Usually from here we end up retesting the 1.61 or even 1.27, both of which are great buy levels.
I have a simple way of thinking about trading. There are various things the market can do that fit nicely inside of my "Norms" with fibs and such. When we're at big levels, I plan all the things that can happen inside my "Norms". Moves the market can make that my straits profit in - or at least stop me out in the right place. No spike outs, or unnecessary running losses.
In this setup I am ready to trade those three reactions. If any of them happen exactly as I described, I make bank. Many multiples of what I risk in a trade. If something else happens, my best outcome will be I do not trade, or any trades I do take I get some sort of breakeven result on. If the market does something I understand I hit it hard, and otherwise I just get out.
Given that 2/3 of my known reactions from a 1.61 are bearish (one of them just a dip, but a sizable one), I'll generally tend to fade 1.61s. 2/3 times it works. Can make over 1:3 RR. A lot of the time you get reactions off 1.61 before breaks and can maybe get risk off on shorts that'd not work out. Makes sense, takes a lot to discourage me from fading a 1.61 first touch.
Here's the hit of the 1.61.
Really big reaction off this. But in the bear setups here typically this retest off the 1.61 would be the kiss of death for the bull move.
Now, we have to have some tolerance for spike outs whenever we trade, and more so on stop hunting things like BTC. For the last couple days we've inside the tolerance zone for that.
This is starting to look more threatening for a legit break .
If the 1.61 is a non-event as resistance, the follow pop is impressive. Usually directly up to the 2.20. Around 140K.
Trade active
Usually see this really acerating when it breaks the bearish pattern (The butterfly that the big sharp fall came off).
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