BitcoinLong
MtGoxBTC... deeply oversold quasi-arb
Trade logic: in the event that MtGox is kaput, this will go to zero; in the event that MtGox re-establishes operations, it will MtGoxBTC will move sharply towards parity with 'generic' BTC, which implies more than a doubling of this instrument.
Thus, if your subjective belief is that MtGox has a greater than 40% chance of surviving, this trade has a strongly positive expected value.
Finally: MtGox is scheduled to make a statement about their operations today (Tokyo time); there will be a rapid reaction to the *existence* of the statement before it's read - and that reaction will almost certainly be towards the upside. Last time that happened, is was good for a $100 move in this instrument in fifteen minutes.
Thus, if your subjective belief is that MtGox has a greater than 40% chance of surviving, this trade has a strongly positive expected value.
Finally: MtGox is scheduled to make a statement about their operations today (Tokyo time); there will be a rapid reaction to the *existence* of the statement before it's read - and that reaction will almost certainly be towards the upside. Last time that happened, is was good for a $100 move in this instrument in fifteen minutes.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.