Short

BTC SHORT - Don't get sucked in just yet,

Updated

Real quick -

Bearish ascending wedge. Hidden bearish divergence on OBVOSC, sitting at decent resistance. Not a super high probability trade but cut losses over 7700 (on bitmex) and the risk to reward makes a hell of a lot of sense. I'm currently short with an entry at 7680 so my risk is about $45 per btc, reward well over 3x that.

Cheers.

Note

Also, this a a short-term short. I think there's a good chance still that we have found the bottom for this leg down. See my previous posts for more info. I predicted 7k about 3 weeks in advance.

Note

Also, to be more exact I trade on bitmex so my entry and stop losses are always going to be based on that exchange. That said, I'll cut my losses over 7750 and have some asks on the way there to average down my position so far.

Note

It is highly possible (I think it's actually fairly likely) that the breakdown of the wedge will bottom at 7500. However, I see it also fairly probable to retest the bigger triangle that I have drawn on my previous posts of my longer term trade. That would bottom out around 7150 or so and makes a lot of sense as well.

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I will be looking to take profit between 7400 and 7500 at which point I will wait and analyze the price action before making another trade. It could bottom at 7.4-7.5, otherwise 7.1k would be my next target.

Note

This is my two scenarios that I believe are most likely at this point. The red arrows are one scenario and the green are the other. I will be taking profit at 7.4-7.5 ( I have buys set at support levels throughout) but think 7130ish is highly possible as well.

Note

and the blue* are the other.

Trade closed: stop reached

We are still in a fairly clean looking ascending wedge. I was stopped out and because of the daily uptrend we're in, have decided to just wait for the daily close today and longer before taking another trade. We're in a short term daily uptrend now, and have bounced exactly where I predicted 3 weeks ago. I'm overall bullish. With that said, we are nearing a place where a short term reversal or dip for liquidity by the MM's is becoming more and more likely. If this wedge just completely falls apart, I will likely be looking to buy dips on good support in the coming days.

Note

I'd say the wedge is invalidated. Though you can draw another that's fitting, the 8h closed nearly a hammer, the 12hr closed bullish, and the daily is in a 4 day uptrend. I won't be looking for more shorts at this moment but perhaps dip buys.

Trade closed: target reached

Well this ended up hitting my first target pretty much exactly as planned. You win some you lose some. Better safe than sorry.

blesdawg

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