Bitcoin: 73K Test Or Not?
Bitcoin has peaked in the 73K Area which completed the 5th of the 5th wave. I specifically mentioned this in my previous article when I said "THE PARTY IS OVER". If you were fooled by the internet hype, you can only blame your own greed. Markets don't unfold in straight lines, they unfold in cycles and now we are in a corrective one. Let me explain what I am anticipating over the coming week in light of this scenario.
I have to mention that I have seen numerous videos showcasing tons of tables and graphs that show promising facts and figures. This is great for entertainment, but it FAILS to address RISK, especially on the short term. IF the underlying catalyst for the recent rally in Bitcoin is no longer in play, price can consolidate for weeks or months before a new catalyst comes along, and there is NO guarantee it will be positive. It is UNKNOWN, which is why it is better to get good at calculating RISK instead of indulging in dreams. I am not a pessimist NOR bearish on Bitcoin, I am realistic and FOLLOW the story of PRICE which I found to be the best way to gauge RISK.
Now let me explain my chart: the lower blue rectangle (58 to 60K AREA) is a high probability BULLISH reversal zone. IF price can test this area throughout the week, I will be looking for reversal patterns for a swing trade long. Profit potential can be estimated in the mid to high 60Ks. While ANYTHING is possible, I am not willing to bet on a higher high because we are likely in a corrective phase.
Currently, price is attempting to take out an inside bar for a swing trade long (break of 66K). What makes this less attractive is it is not in the reversal zone so I would consider is a 50% probability. The next leg higher may be the B wave which is the one that usually makes the lower high (see chart). Which means again, I would not expect the next leg to compromise the 73K area all time high.
The blue rectangle in the 70K area is the high probability BEARISH reversal zone. This is a good area to gauge profit potential or look for aggressive short setups. Buying in this area, ESPECIALLY for investors is HIGH RISK. The lines drawn on the chart illustrate one scenario (consolidation) that I am anticipating over the next week or so. Best way to navigate this is using day trade or swing trade strategies and waiting for a price action confirmation in a reversal zone.
Markets are motivated by greed and fear which makes movements IRRATIONAL. Most participants are not even aware of how their own motivations blind them to the liabilities of being part of the herd. In this game, opportunities are often found by exploiting the mistakes of others. To recognize those mistakes you first have to remove yourself from the mindset of greed which is at the root of these opportunities. You can begin by changing the information that you are naturally drawn to. Less logical "facts and figures" that are irrelevant in a game that is highly random, and more on the emotional patterns and tendencies that can only be expressed by price itself.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
I have to mention that I have seen numerous videos showcasing tons of tables and graphs that show promising facts and figures. This is great for entertainment, but it FAILS to address RISK, especially on the short term. IF the underlying catalyst for the recent rally in Bitcoin is no longer in play, price can consolidate for weeks or months before a new catalyst comes along, and there is NO guarantee it will be positive. It is UNKNOWN, which is why it is better to get good at calculating RISK instead of indulging in dreams. I am not a pessimist NOR bearish on Bitcoin, I am realistic and FOLLOW the story of PRICE which I found to be the best way to gauge RISK.
Now let me explain my chart: the lower blue rectangle (58 to 60K AREA) is a high probability BULLISH reversal zone. IF price can test this area throughout the week, I will be looking for reversal patterns for a swing trade long. Profit potential can be estimated in the mid to high 60Ks. While ANYTHING is possible, I am not willing to bet on a higher high because we are likely in a corrective phase.
Currently, price is attempting to take out an inside bar for a swing trade long (break of 66K). What makes this less attractive is it is not in the reversal zone so I would consider is a 50% probability. The next leg higher may be the B wave which is the one that usually makes the lower high (see chart). Which means again, I would not expect the next leg to compromise the 73K area all time high.
The blue rectangle in the 70K area is the high probability BEARISH reversal zone. This is a good area to gauge profit potential or look for aggressive short setups. Buying in this area, ESPECIALLY for investors is HIGH RISK. The lines drawn on the chart illustrate one scenario (consolidation) that I am anticipating over the next week or so. Best way to navigate this is using day trade or swing trade strategies and waiting for a price action confirmation in a reversal zone.
Markets are motivated by greed and fear which makes movements IRRATIONAL. Most participants are not even aware of how their own motivations blind them to the liabilities of being part of the herd. In this game, opportunities are often found by exploiting the mistakes of others. To recognize those mistakes you first have to remove yourself from the mindset of greed which is at the root of these opportunities. You can begin by changing the information that you are naturally drawn to. Less logical "facts and figures" that are irrelevant in a game that is highly random, and more on the emotional patterns and tendencies that can only be expressed by price itself.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
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