BTS/USD major trend and bottom
Updated
Thank you for reading this BTC/USD analysis. BTC is now clearly established in an obvious bear channel and we appear to be leaving the distribution phase and entering true capitulation and decline. Many traders have been calling an 8k bottom but I can't see this myself. The next solid support appears to be between 6k and 7.5k. I expect us to hit this level mid to late February at which point I would expect us to resume the shallow up-trend we followed for the majority of 2017.
After this point, it is very much a case of fundamentals as to whether BTC survives and thrives. Other, newer coins demonstrate better technologies and the Bitcoin devs will need to pull together and find a way to incorporate these in order for the cryptocurrency to retain its' pre-eminent position. The devs need to find ways to achieve two main goals:
* Increase transaction speeds so that real-time purchases are practical without intermediary systems and without Trust (Lightening - not a winner)
* Reduce fees
If they can do this then I expect BTC to flourish and resume a steeper uptrend mid 2018 but if the dev community descends into quarrels and arguments and isn't able to find ways to achieve these goals, the herd will lose interest in BTC and move to another coin. Speaking from my own personal perspective, this will be a TERRIBLE SHAME. Bitcoin's decentralised nature is a massive obstacle to effective development but also a great strength and the Satoshi Nakamoto origin myth is incredibly powerful. I can't see any other crypto-currency being quite as powerful as bitcoin has the potential to be.
After this point, it is very much a case of fundamentals as to whether BTC survives and thrives. Other, newer coins demonstrate better technologies and the Bitcoin devs will need to pull together and find a way to incorporate these in order for the cryptocurrency to retain its' pre-eminent position. The devs need to find ways to achieve two main goals:
* Increase transaction speeds so that real-time purchases are practical without intermediary systems and without Trust (Lightening - not a winner)
* Reduce fees
If they can do this then I expect BTC to flourish and resume a steeper uptrend mid 2018 but if the dev community descends into quarrels and arguments and isn't able to find ways to achieve these goals, the herd will lose interest in BTC and move to another coin. Speaking from my own personal perspective, this will be a TERRIBLE SHAME. Bitcoin's decentralised nature is a massive obstacle to effective development but also a great strength and the Satoshi Nakamoto origin myth is incredibly powerful. I can't see any other crypto-currency being quite as powerful as bitcoin has the potential to be.
Note
Well, that was quick! We broke out of the bear channel and slammed into the central support area. Lots of people are calling the bottom here and while I am reasonably optimistic, volume has once again picked up on the buy side. This makes me think that we haven't reached the true point of capitulation and this means one of two things:1. We will not enter a true depression, the market will pick up speed from here and re-enter bull phase.
2. We haven't reached the bottom.
I am keeping an open mind here. I sold all BTC in December and have only been day trading since then. I plan to take an investment position again but only once we have confirmation that the true bottom has been and once we know whether or not we will re-enter a bull market immediately or whether we will enter depression.
Some things to bear in mind:
* The old world order has chosen this point to attack crypto, which in my view is a very unwise move on their behalf as it will push the prime-movers in the space to redouble their efforts
* The crytpo space is extremely vibrant and some of the world's best minds are now lending it their attention
* The paradigm shift to blockchain enabled web 3.0 is so enormous and the implications so far reaching, that even those of us focused on it find it difficult to comprehend exactly how much it will change the world
* The whole capitalist system is currently poised on the edge of a large correction
Make of these what you will.
Note
Back down onto the major trend. I expect all hope to do die soon and bulls and bears to lose interest. We might have one more wave up and down before this happens but once we have settled down, a proper accumulation phase can begin. Note that this "accumulation" refers to accumulation of bitcoin into the hands of long-term investors, who are "the only decent and trustworthy souls in a crooked market" but also accumulation of real confidence in price. These factors will be what powers the next bull phase.How long will the accumulation phase take? When will the next bull phase occur?
I can't answer these questions but I believe the market will take longer to pick up than most commentators expect because BTC has had the life sucked out of it by speculators. The fact that it has remained at these prices is testament to its soul and long-term virility and I expect it to recover and surpass current prices but have no idea when this will happen. It won't be in the next quarter though so be careful out there and don't buy the top!
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