This post will include the same chart as a Month, Weekly, Daily and 4 hour
The 3 indicators are
RSI - RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the price
TSI - The True Strength Index indicator is a momentum oscillator designed to detect, confirm or visualize the strength of a trend. - the True Strength Index (TSI) does show trend direction.
ADX - the Average Directional Index (ADX) shows the strength of a market trend, NOT its direction. The base line is 25 - Above is strong trned, below is weaker trend
ADX is Yellow - DI + is orange ( positive price index) - DI - is Red ( Negative price index
MONTHLY
The main chart is the monthly chart - the vertical lines Mark Years
Note how ATH's are all Above the Rising upper trend line.
From the Left,
2013 ATH - Note how RSI and TSI both peaked BEFORE ATH, as did the DI+ on the ADX indicator. The ADX itself turned down Later
2017 ATH saw a similar pattern
2021 was slightly different. RSI and TSI peaked on the March ATH but the true cycle ATH was in Q4 ( Nov) , as are most BTC Cycle ATH - Note the sudden drops in both ( probably due to deleveraged)
The DI+ on the ADX did the same but note how the ADX itself peaked in NOV - The ADX seemingly being more accurate on showing us Cycle Top by Trend.
Currently,
The RSI has not entered Fully OVERBOUGHT as in previous cycles. Has Fallen below Overbought entry line in recent weeks. Maybe leveling out
TSI ( orange) is falling since Jan, showing a bearish trend - Falling towards its own average.. PA has been falling in this time.
ADX has also slowed and flatten out, showing a weakening of trend. NOTE - ADX does not show us Trend direction...So, in recent months, we have seen a DROP in PA.
Weakening of this trend could be pointing towards a reversal ?
Also look at the orange DI+ line in ADX....It is getting Lower on each ATH, harder to move higher as Price increase makes BTC harder to move
THE WEEKLY begins to show us more info
https://www.tradingview.com/x/B0mebpai/
This starts to get interesting here
Note that in 2021, It was as we saw in the monthly Except the ADX fell after the March ATH and did not rise again untill half way through 2021 when the Bear Kicked in Fully. The ADX here is showing the strength of that Bear Market as Luna, FTX and 3 arrows collapsed.
The RSI and TSI remained flat Till Jan 2023, when we saw PA beginning to recover. Notice I said RECOVER. I said it at the time and I say it again..Jan 2023 till September was recovery from avery deep Bear market. This is backed up by the fact that the ADX remained Flat untill Late August 2023. Showed No TREND
Then we saw ADX rise, TSI rise off Neutral and RSI begin to head towards Overbought.
All 3 then Dipped in Mid 2024, Rose again to End of 2024 and since then, we have seen the RSI and TSI drop below their averages, head to Neutral
ADX continied to rise as DI+ Dropped, showing us this was a Bearish Trend after all.
However, since beginning of March, the ADX has been showing a weakening of this trend. Still Bearish as the rise in DI - shows, but it is getting weaker.
DAILY begins to show us what could be heading for a new trend, maybe
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kAyWBdB7/
BTC PA dropped since Feb as did the RSI and TSI, though they have recently stopped doing that and have tried to bounce but still remain below Neutral.
The reason for this is shown in the ADX that has continued to rise untill March, Keeping that Bearish trend Active and strong. This is confirmed by the DI - ( red ) being above the DI +
Even though this trend has weakened, DI + remains flat showing that a change in trend does not appear to be happening to quickly.
Note how the ADX has turned and is beginning to rise higher as the TSI and RSI flatten out
Hpwever. DI - also remain flat.
Change could be near. It is not happening yet but......
The 4 hour chart is full of Noise but given whet we just seen, it may be relevant to see it
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NmEoMnZp/
It is Volatile but we can see on BTC PA how PA slowed its drop from March and has ranged with a reducing high Low.
We can see how the RSI and TSI rose, dipped and Rose to their current positions near Neutral.
We can see on the ADX, in the centre , was the Last Bearish push, BTC PA Dropped sharply but the trend weakened quickly. the Bears are getting tired.
We see the attempt by the BULLS around the 11 march to push PA higher.
This failed..but showed us the bulls are still here.
The Fact that the ADX is below the DI lines is a sign that a Trend no longer exists or is very weak
The previous Bearish Trend is possibly exhausted.
We have signs that Price recovery is possible from here though I think we will wait a bit longer before we see it.
My conclusion is that we maybe seeing the beginning of a change , a reversal, but it may take a little while before we see the Fruits fully. Possibly up to 5 - 6 weeks or more.
The shorter term data shows we could make a push to top of range ( or near) but that could get rejected.. We need more strength for the long term
But I suggest you read this, look at these charts and make up your own mind.
Because they are hard to read in many ways, Trends can spring up any time, in any direction.
We can only look at them and think..
I wish you well
The 3 indicators are
RSI - RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the price
TSI - The True Strength Index indicator is a momentum oscillator designed to detect, confirm or visualize the strength of a trend. - the True Strength Index (TSI) does show trend direction.
ADX - the Average Directional Index (ADX) shows the strength of a market trend, NOT its direction. The base line is 25 - Above is strong trned, below is weaker trend
ADX is Yellow - DI + is orange ( positive price index) - DI - is Red ( Negative price index
MONTHLY
The main chart is the monthly chart - the vertical lines Mark Years
Note how ATH's are all Above the Rising upper trend line.
From the Left,
2013 ATH - Note how RSI and TSI both peaked BEFORE ATH, as did the DI+ on the ADX indicator. The ADX itself turned down Later
2017 ATH saw a similar pattern
2021 was slightly different. RSI and TSI peaked on the March ATH but the true cycle ATH was in Q4 ( Nov) , as are most BTC Cycle ATH - Note the sudden drops in both ( probably due to deleveraged)
The DI+ on the ADX did the same but note how the ADX itself peaked in NOV - The ADX seemingly being more accurate on showing us Cycle Top by Trend.
Currently,
The RSI has not entered Fully OVERBOUGHT as in previous cycles. Has Fallen below Overbought entry line in recent weeks. Maybe leveling out
TSI ( orange) is falling since Jan, showing a bearish trend - Falling towards its own average.. PA has been falling in this time.
ADX has also slowed and flatten out, showing a weakening of trend. NOTE - ADX does not show us Trend direction...So, in recent months, we have seen a DROP in PA.
Weakening of this trend could be pointing towards a reversal ?
Also look at the orange DI+ line in ADX....It is getting Lower on each ATH, harder to move higher as Price increase makes BTC harder to move
THE WEEKLY begins to show us more info
https://www.tradingview.com/x/B0mebpai/
This starts to get interesting here
Note that in 2021, It was as we saw in the monthly Except the ADX fell after the March ATH and did not rise again untill half way through 2021 when the Bear Kicked in Fully. The ADX here is showing the strength of that Bear Market as Luna, FTX and 3 arrows collapsed.
The RSI and TSI remained flat Till Jan 2023, when we saw PA beginning to recover. Notice I said RECOVER. I said it at the time and I say it again..Jan 2023 till September was recovery from avery deep Bear market. This is backed up by the fact that the ADX remained Flat untill Late August 2023. Showed No TREND
Then we saw ADX rise, TSI rise off Neutral and RSI begin to head towards Overbought.
All 3 then Dipped in Mid 2024, Rose again to End of 2024 and since then, we have seen the RSI and TSI drop below their averages, head to Neutral
ADX continied to rise as DI+ Dropped, showing us this was a Bearish Trend after all.
However, since beginning of March, the ADX has been showing a weakening of this trend. Still Bearish as the rise in DI - shows, but it is getting weaker.
DAILY begins to show us what could be heading for a new trend, maybe
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kAyWBdB7/
BTC PA dropped since Feb as did the RSI and TSI, though they have recently stopped doing that and have tried to bounce but still remain below Neutral.
The reason for this is shown in the ADX that has continued to rise untill March, Keeping that Bearish trend Active and strong. This is confirmed by the DI - ( red ) being above the DI +
Even though this trend has weakened, DI + remains flat showing that a change in trend does not appear to be happening to quickly.
Note how the ADX has turned and is beginning to rise higher as the TSI and RSI flatten out
Hpwever. DI - also remain flat.
Change could be near. It is not happening yet but......
The 4 hour chart is full of Noise but given whet we just seen, it may be relevant to see it
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NmEoMnZp/
It is Volatile but we can see on BTC PA how PA slowed its drop from March and has ranged with a reducing high Low.
We can see how the RSI and TSI rose, dipped and Rose to their current positions near Neutral.
We can see on the ADX, in the centre , was the Last Bearish push, BTC PA Dropped sharply but the trend weakened quickly. the Bears are getting tired.
We see the attempt by the BULLS around the 11 march to push PA higher.
This failed..but showed us the bulls are still here.
The Fact that the ADX is below the DI lines is a sign that a Trend no longer exists or is very weak
The previous Bearish Trend is possibly exhausted.
We have signs that Price recovery is possible from here though I think we will wait a bit longer before we see it.
My conclusion is that we maybe seeing the beginning of a change , a reversal, but it may take a little while before we see the Fruits fully. Possibly up to 5 - 6 weeks or more.
The shorter term data shows we could make a push to top of range ( or near) but that could get rejected.. We need more strength for the long term
But I suggest you read this, look at these charts and make up your own mind.
Because they are hard to read in many ways, Trends can spring up any time, in any direction.
We can only look at them and think..
I wish you well
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.