Bitcoin $BTC 'prediction'
Updated
***This is the opposite of financial advice, this is an exercise in pure speculation!***
I would like to throw my hat in the ring of people trying to predict the future of Bitcoin:
The whole idea is based on the 2013 cycle midpoint which featured a consolidation around the middle of the regression curve. Each of the 3 major peaks that led to a prolonged bear market peaked at the upper regression line. I expect the same to happen again. It only seems fitting that the market should experience a major selloff and major skepticism (the current state of the market) before a piece of extremely bullish news comes out - the first BTC ETF approval. The news will cause an initial jump/short covering/FOMO only to be met with a few months-weeks consolidation again making all the late buyers question their position, this skeptic period of trading should have similar price behavior to April 2020-September 2020.
Problems:
-it is possible the breakdown in March 2020 signaled that the regression curve is breaking and BTC will be unable to extend to the upper band (but I can also flip that logic and say the breakdown anomaly will lead to upside extension anomaly)
-the SEC can push back the ETF approval again or even deny its approval (although I find it interesting that more and more ETF applications are being filed and now even multiple ETH applications, this makes me wonder why there is such a rush to apply)
Link to recent BTC ETF article that inspired this idea
coindesk.com/sec-pushes-vaneck-bitcoin-etf-decision-to-at-least-june
I would like to throw my hat in the ring of people trying to predict the future of Bitcoin:
The whole idea is based on the 2013 cycle midpoint which featured a consolidation around the middle of the regression curve. Each of the 3 major peaks that led to a prolonged bear market peaked at the upper regression line. I expect the same to happen again. It only seems fitting that the market should experience a major selloff and major skepticism (the current state of the market) before a piece of extremely bullish news comes out - the first BTC ETF approval. The news will cause an initial jump/short covering/FOMO only to be met with a few months-weeks consolidation again making all the late buyers question their position, this skeptic period of trading should have similar price behavior to April 2020-September 2020.
Problems:
-it is possible the breakdown in March 2020 signaled that the regression curve is breaking and BTC will be unable to extend to the upper band (but I can also flip that logic and say the breakdown anomaly will lead to upside extension anomaly)
-the SEC can push back the ETF approval again or even deny its approval (although I find it interesting that more and more ETF applications are being filed and now even multiple ETH applications, this makes me wonder why there is such a rush to apply)
Link to recent BTC ETF article that inspired this idea
coindesk.com/sec-pushes-vaneck-bitcoin-etf-decision-to-at-least-june
Note
twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1399107669567361025There are currently 13 crypto ETF applications awaiting approval.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.