Short

Updated

BTC/USD - Beginning of the new bull run or deeper correction ?

After an impressive 100% increase of the price ( up from 6k ), bulls are slowly running out of steam as bears are about to take over for the next days.

Mixed signals for trend reversal or deeper correction. Bitcoin has to retest lower levels as there is still high demand on the 9k-10k area.

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Reversal Heikin Ashi candle, just in time for this.

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Previous RSI resistance turns into support. Little up trend or sideways actions.

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RSI DIV and possible reversal candle patter, it might bounce here for a while.

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Trade closed: target reached

First target, its gonna have a little more down trend.

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If you have been following me for a while, you know that i always advice you to take a look at the SHORTS. This time, you should check both LONGS and SHORTS.
The market maker does not follow the crowd, its vice versa.

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I posted this on ew-forecast idea earlier, nothing different as of now.

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Correction: Its SMA55, not EMA55.

Bulls will start to slowly pick up from here.

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Short term bias: Neutral

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It can bounce here but i think the real support is slightly lower...
Short term bias: Neutral to bullish

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Bitcoin seems ok in the short term.
Short term bias: Neutral

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Beware of the pre-11k levels.

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Bulls are on fire! Everyone feels so great about this iH&S and keep forgeting that if you want this to work, bitcoin has to retrace. 5 wave

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5 waves up, no retracement, expect it to face resistance at the 11k level

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It can go slightly higher -doubt it- but a retracement is more than healthy at this point.
Short term bias: Bearish

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Massive decline... if it doesnt bounce on 10.7k level you know where its heading...

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Also, wave 5 stopped at almost exactly 0.618 , pretty normal after and extended 3rd.
If you wanna play out the 1:1 extention and 11.1k target its up to you, but its not worth it imo, eventually it will break that local high after the pullback.

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I though that i posted this also but seems i didnt... Keep calm :)

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It broke the line on the last update, downtrend confirmed. No clear structure yet, but expect some sideways before the last wave down.

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There is a chance for short term uptrend here, I dont see it going to 11k any time soon. Not impossible, i just dont see it with the current data...

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Actually, technically its a 1-5, if it keeps corecting lower its an abc.

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Be careful if you are trading Bitcoin, a break down of the local support at 10.4k will signal a down trend with a target of 10k minimum. Definately at a no-trade zone, for now.

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Moving slowly and with lots of hesitation for now,it will probably peak at 10.7-10.8 area before a retracement.

ALSO!!! Dont be foolled by the price action, volume is pretty low, you would probably understand when the peak is as volume will rise at that level.

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Alright, since i will be busy today and i wont be able to provide any updates, i think i will have to share my treasure map. If it breaks 11.8k i will reconsider.

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My advice: Dont be fooled about the perma-bull posts by the popular traders. Yes, Bitcoin will most likely have a bull run this year, but thats says NOTHING at all about the short term.
Patterns are illusions, they are confirmed with volume and volume only! And there is always fake break outs. If you are long fine, it wont make much difference. But if you swing, you should be familiar with the risk involved on trading right now. If you are not familiar with the risk, then stay in the sidelines and enter later.

If anyone of you sees patterns and knows that they will play out before they happen, then congratulations you have psychic abilites. If thats your super power then message me and we will work something out. :D

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Oh and something else for the pattern guys. Its making a small iH&S on 1hr timeframe. We call it wave 3 ( and the neckline will probably be on its 3rd subwave), so dont be surprised if you see a relative big spike on the price and volume.

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As you can see the decline has already started, but this is not over yet. Its probably day traders exiting their positions. I will update soon(tm) - once i get more confidence on my count.

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Alright, i made this about an hour ago, but was waiting for the day to close and Bitcoin start moving.

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Batlle of the trend line: Round 3

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Targets readjusted since it retraced slightly more since the last update, now they are more inline with the smaller box, which i didnt readjust at all.

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Actually its readjusted too, sorry.

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if it breaks the trendline, thats the target.

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Alright, this is the last possibility for the bear count. Somehow my downtrend line has moved after publishing the idea and was shown wrong on the picture updates but i readjusted it ( should be fine on the main idea). Note that its drawn by taking into account the close value of Heikin Ashin candles.
Bullish confirmation above 11.8k

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Potential count on the smaller time frame, 1 is the longest so 5 has to stay below the fib line in circle to be valid, or else it has a little more up trend. Also, its flirting with the down trend line.

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Massive decline right as it broke the uptrend channel.

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Techincally it touched the line, but because the wick is very long we dont take it as valid, for now. Its gonna get picked up by they day traders from here.

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Still no confirmation, 3$ off, day traders wanna catch the falling knife near the wedge.

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There is sell presure at 11.3k for now, if it breaks through it has a second chance to challenge 11.6k. Either way, if you are on the sidelines, this is a no-trade zone.

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This is for you that are so proud of looking at the bigger picture and mocking us that check the smaller time frames. Double standards eveyrwhere.

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Check the weekly or daily candles and tell us its bullish. Thank you.

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This one is too hardcore for me, i cant stare on the daily for more than one min, so i typed some comments as fast as i could.

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In case you missed it, i provide updates on the new idea.

Trade closed: target reached

Targets 2 and 3. This is still a valid scenario, less possible though.

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Beware for this scenario, its the ultimate bear trap at this point.

Acel

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Acel

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