The Big Frontrun
Updated
I just looked into the crystal ball and it told me the big frontrun is coming. It said the 2nd pre halving rally is also fuel by the etf frontrun, laughed about my 46k target and then it warned all bears:
"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides
by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men.
Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will
Shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness.
For he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children.
And I will strike down upon thee,
with great vengeance and furious anger,
the bears who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers.
And you will know my name is the bull,
when I lay my vengeance upon thee."
"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides
by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men.
Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will
Shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness.
For he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children.
And I will strike down upon thee,
with great vengeance and furious anger,
the bears who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers.
And you will know my name is the bull,
when I lay my vengeance upon thee."
Note
breaking 38kNote
People are buying money.Note
CME is going to open with a gap to 40k after a rare weekend pumpNote
When I researched this idea, I looked for similar price action and similar RSI behavior (resetting RSI on bear div with hidden bull div, with an unconventional bull flag upside after a quick rise). It gave me 2 fractals, the one used in this idea is from 2019 but there was another one from 2012. Both matched really well. I thought 2019 was more likely, but so far 2012 matches even better. This is the 2012 fractal:So everything points to a sell the news event on ETF approval in January 2024.
Note
BTC failed to hold above 43400 which was an important level on the 4 hour chart. Now there is still a CME gap open at 39k which has some risk to close.
I think that 39k-41k should be a solid support now, a lot of btc changed hands in the 37k region and sellers get their chance to get back in, also still plenty of sideline money wanting to get in, so I think its unlikely we will see a major 30%-50% correction like we saw in previous cycles. Need to go much higher before that.
I think leverage gets washed out, and Christmas time can be chopy.
While the fractals give us an idea of direction and timing, we cannot rely on them alone. But trendfollowing signals on daily and weekly both remain intact for me even if would test 39k.
Note
News for this dip was twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1734277882166313349Bill would mean a ban of bitcoin in USA, that would hurt a lot of people, so it's like 0% chance to pass.
Warren does a lot of BS all the time, wonder if this is true but I guess it is: twitter.com/lopp/status/1603129259790598145
Note
Bitcoin has been climbing a wall of worry.Not much happened in December for the Bitcoin price; it started to form a possible triangle, which usually indicates trend continuation. So its more likely to break up than down. But in case it breaks down, it could form an ABC pullback and might find support around $38-39k, allowing for a new dip entry.
The big frontrun fractal showed a stronger initial move, but the timing matches. If it follows the fractal, BTC should move again soon.
Note
triangle remained intact. Usually triangles have 5 waves: ABCDE but sometimes they break out on D wave already. Note
Btc broke out without a D-wave and was rejected on the first try.The market washed out 500m of leverage with this scam wick and is still trying to break out of the triangle to the upside. But its uncertain if price can go higher.
Market did a good job, I dont see anyone having a strong opinion on either outcome anymore, same for me. But I remain slightly bullish, especially as long as btc is above the daily ma20.
good luck!
Note
As we can see in the chart there are usually two rallys before the halving.In 2020 the 2nd rally was interrupted by a global liquidity shock (covid).
2016 and 2012 were similar, only the 2nd rally in 2016 was followed by the Bitfinex hack.
This time it looks like 2012 and 2016 again. Based on this theory, one would expect btc to go sideways or sideways down into the halving.
But this time there are the etfs coming, so it could be an outlier to the upside, just like covid was an outlier to the downside.
So we can ask ourselves the questions:
If we assume 2016, will we have some major bearish news like the bitfinex hack?
If we assume 2020, will there be a global bearish event like covid?
If not, then we can assume a sideways phase into the halving or an outlier to the upside.
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/9/9Gl3GfpC.png
Note
So it seems like the price is still too low for a "sell the news" event on bitcoin etfs. Today we will see the demand for the etfs and if market makers can provide enough liquidity for etf buyers. Also the frontrun for the halving is still in progress.
Trade closed manually
looks like the frontrun could be over for now and there are higher chances that btc goes sideways into the halving. long term weekly charts for the cycle remain bullish but any leverage seems risky here.
new idea needed.
Note
seems like it was programmed
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.