BTC is going through nearly the same situation as it was in early April. Fear and uncertainty have been dominating over the past couple of weeks. However, it is evident that it is trading within a broad channel defined by MA(365-200) on daily. Furthermore, it is not behaving the same it was in 2014/15 cycle. It is much different and has developed a triangle instead of a channel down. I am still long on BTC since 7200. I do expect a test of 7800 - 8200 in coming week and then a jump towards 8600 or 8900 area before pulling back. Ultimately, it should test 10k once again. I will be taking profits using Fib levels in reverse order.
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invst.ly/7oa-m (buy signal - 7200). Hope you didn't miss it. Every time it hits this, I am a buyer & won't be a seller.Note
along with KST, DEMA(9,26) and MA(50,100), the last check was Aroon. I am quite confident that we are heading north to test the resistance zone 7800-8200...Note
On a slightly volatile day, BTC tried to retest 7048 on hourly time-frame which holds with falling three methods and deliberation bearish along with a strong 15mins engulfing bullish hammer on a neutral RSI=47. Broadly speaking this forms a tentative double bottom at 7175 (1H) OR Fib0.786=7204 / Fib0.886=7131. My June 5 view remains the same while the support (7048) has not been broken down yet. 15min/1H positive divergence suggest a short-term up move towards 7404-7511 (supported by: Price channel - daily ATR; oversold 5H RSI=27; STOCHRSI=3; FT=-2). Furthermore, if the price doesn't make a 3rd attempt to test 7048 AND/OR 7175 in coming hours/day, I will take further risk to buy & TP at 7640. Again moving SL to 7048 remains a logical choice. On the other hand, if the price retraces more towards my benchmark=6838, the shorts will be triggered with first TP=6350. GL!Note
The price fell below my benchmark on the weekend & initiated the shorts. However, upon a review, I can see this a fake drop to initiate the sell-off. That is an assumption so far and depends much on the breakout of 7200. I closed the short and will remain neutral now. At this moment, BTC is trading around 6830 & can easily test 7200 support. Here is my today's snippet from invst...Daily money flow shows positive divergence on RSI=32.7 & oversold STOCHRSI with a neutral UO and an increasing sell pressure (BBP=-995 from BBP=-40 approx). This is all a consequence of weekends' fake sell (assumption) to initiate sell pressure explained earlier. This divergence along with 5H oversold conditions (STOCH=14; %R=-80; MFI=0.315; CMF=-0.51) we may see a channel-up and a re-test of price channel=7051 OR Fib0.786=7193.73. This is also supported by the daily volume CMF=-0.0108 near zero cross. Price also made several attempts to break down below April low while I successfully made trades. The price is very much manipulated & it is difficult to judge the direction (until BTC trades below ~6400 / above ~7200). Furthermore, the price closed above Fib88.6(=6838). Thus, I am closing my minor short position, staying neutral, and waiting to see 7200 / 6400. In coming couple of days, I expect sideways where 5H will be the key!...invst.ly/7pi7iNote
Remarkably and very well calculated sell-off continued to form a double bottom (6432-6436). It is neither initiating a panic sell nor being attracted to buyers despite the formation of a double bottom. Thus, I am still not lean towards opening any position if the manipulation is like this. I will get more interested when it trades below 6400 (nullifying the April low, to short) or breaks-out 7200 (long) on a significant volume (10K or more).Trade closed: stop reached
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.