Looking at BTCUSD from lowest Timeframes up...
Updated
Scalping group of timeframes (6m, 12m, 23m, 45m)
First of all - stating the obvious..
As we can see in all this group of Timeframes; the Energy is higher than the Green EMA indicating bearish sentiment. As long as this is the case, we can expect to see lower highs during periods of upward pressure and lower lows during periods of downward pressure.
Short term group of timeframes ( 90m, 3h, 6h, 12h)
As with the scalping group, in all the Timeframes in the Short Term group, the Energy is higher than the Green EMA indicating bearish sentiment. Again, we are likely to continue seeing lower highs and lower lows until this position changes. We have seen a series of bearish crosses with the Red RSI falling below the Blue LSMA. As long as the Energy is below 50, while the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are below 50 too we are likely to continue seeing the price action sit with the candle bodies predominantly between the Aqua/Orange lower Bollinger Bands potentially wicking down to the Red lower Bollinger Band. When the Blue LSMA changes direction near level 50 or crosses level 50 we stand a good chance of seeing the Bollinger Bands expand as is the case in this group of Timeframes. While the Red RSI and Blue LSMA remain below 50 and particularly as they continue to fall we can expect the price action to accelerate to the downside as it remains between the Aqua/Orange BBs. In the 90m we did see the Energy just pop up above 50 momentarily, however the Red RSI closed making contact with the Green EMA as it descends, indicating downward pressure, as a result the Energy began to return down below 50. Downward pressure has cascaded up from the scalping group as a series of downward pressure races in which the Red RSI won each time indicating a continuation of downward pressure.
Near Term group of timeframes: (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d)
In the daily we saw the Red RSI close crossing bearish below the Blue LSMA and the Red RSI closing making contact with the Green EMA as it fell on April 17th. This was a solid indication of the start of a period of downward pressure and provided a premium sell signal. The Red RSI crossed below 50 on April 19th indicating the likelyhood of the price action sitting with the candle bodies predominantly between the White/Aqua lower Bollinger Bands. Since the Blue LSMA crossed below 50 yesterday, we can see as expected the price action move between the Aqua/Orang lower BBs. Furthermore when the Blue LSMA crossed below 50, the Bollinger Bands began to expand as expected. While the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA continue on their downward trajectory, we are likely to continue with the price action between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs, potentially wicking down to the Red lower. In the 2d, the Red RSI has crossed bearish below the Blue LSMA as they both simultaneously cross below level 50 indicating a likelyhood of the price action falling between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs and accelerating further to the downside as the BBs expand. The Green EMA in this timeframe, however is higher than the Energy as it is in the 3d & 4d indicating potential for upward pressure in these timerframes.
So what do we need to see to see a reversal back to upward pressure?
First of all we need to see a downward pressure race being won decisively. We are currently looking at a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 2d and the Red RSI in the 4d.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
This race will take a while to play out.
In summary:
We need to see signs of upward pressure propagating up from the scalping group to higher timeframes. In order to optimise an entry, the scalping and short term timeframes will need close monitoring. Until we see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in the scalping and short term group we will not see any chance for a reversal to sustained upward pressure.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
Scalping group:
Short term group:
First of all - stating the obvious..
As we can see in all this group of Timeframes; the Energy is higher than the Green EMA indicating bearish sentiment. As long as this is the case, we can expect to see lower highs during periods of upward pressure and lower lows during periods of downward pressure.
Short term group of timeframes ( 90m, 3h, 6h, 12h)
As with the scalping group, in all the Timeframes in the Short Term group, the Energy is higher than the Green EMA indicating bearish sentiment. Again, we are likely to continue seeing lower highs and lower lows until this position changes. We have seen a series of bearish crosses with the Red RSI falling below the Blue LSMA. As long as the Energy is below 50, while the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are below 50 too we are likely to continue seeing the price action sit with the candle bodies predominantly between the Aqua/Orange lower Bollinger Bands potentially wicking down to the Red lower Bollinger Band. When the Blue LSMA changes direction near level 50 or crosses level 50 we stand a good chance of seeing the Bollinger Bands expand as is the case in this group of Timeframes. While the Red RSI and Blue LSMA remain below 50 and particularly as they continue to fall we can expect the price action to accelerate to the downside as it remains between the Aqua/Orange BBs. In the 90m we did see the Energy just pop up above 50 momentarily, however the Red RSI closed making contact with the Green EMA as it descends, indicating downward pressure, as a result the Energy began to return down below 50. Downward pressure has cascaded up from the scalping group as a series of downward pressure races in which the Red RSI won each time indicating a continuation of downward pressure.
Near Term group of timeframes: (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d)
In the daily we saw the Red RSI close crossing bearish below the Blue LSMA and the Red RSI closing making contact with the Green EMA as it fell on April 17th. This was a solid indication of the start of a period of downward pressure and provided a premium sell signal. The Red RSI crossed below 50 on April 19th indicating the likelyhood of the price action sitting with the candle bodies predominantly between the White/Aqua lower Bollinger Bands. Since the Blue LSMA crossed below 50 yesterday, we can see as expected the price action move between the Aqua/Orang lower BBs. Furthermore when the Blue LSMA crossed below 50, the Bollinger Bands began to expand as expected. While the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA continue on their downward trajectory, we are likely to continue with the price action between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs, potentially wicking down to the Red lower. In the 2d, the Red RSI has crossed bearish below the Blue LSMA as they both simultaneously cross below level 50 indicating a likelyhood of the price action falling between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs and accelerating further to the downside as the BBs expand. The Green EMA in this timeframe, however is higher than the Energy as it is in the 3d & 4d indicating potential for upward pressure in these timerframes.
So what do we need to see to see a reversal back to upward pressure?
First of all we need to see a downward pressure race being won decisively. We are currently looking at a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 2d and the Red RSI in the 4d.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
This race will take a while to play out.
In summary:
We need to see signs of upward pressure propagating up from the scalping group to higher timeframes. In order to optimise an entry, the scalping and short term timeframes will need close monitoring. Until we see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in the scalping and short term group we will not see any chance for a reversal to sustained upward pressure.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
Scalping group:
Short term group:
Note
Mid Term group of timeframes (5d, 6d, 9d, 12d)The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all this group of timeframes indicating bullish sentiment overall. However as we can see, whilst the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are above 50, the Energy is below 50 in all this group of timeframes indicating a period of downward pressure. Because the Green EMA is higher than the Energy, we are likely to see a higher low in all this group. In the 9d the Green EMA is now below 50, we are as a result at risk of seeing the price action fall to the Bollinger Band basis (currently $38657, but rising), we are not likely to go lower unless the Red RSI (currently level 68.37) continues current trajectory and crosses below 50.
Note
Although the current position with regard to the Red RSI and the Energy levels in the scalping timeframes merely reflects what we are seeing in the price action, it is worth noting that the the conditions have been met in this group of timeframes to support propagation of upward pressure. This does not mean we will see upward pressure continue cascading up, but just that the supporting conditions have been met without which there was no chance.....To elaborate, in all the scalping group of timeframes 6, 12, 23, 45, the Green EMA is higher than the Energy indicating upward pressure. Additionally in the 45 the Red RSI has crossed bullish above the Blue LSMA and has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rose, as a result the Energy has turned back up. The Red RSI won an upward pressure race between the Red RSI in the 90 and the Energy in the 45, the Red RSI in the 90 CROSSED above 50 before the Energy CLOSED below 50 in the 45 (in fact as I said it has turned back up). As long as the Red RSI continues cascading up winning the race against the Energy in the halved timeframe we will continue to see upward pressure. Bear in mind that upward pressure does not necessarily mean upward price action, it means sideways at worst, upwards at best.
So in order for upward pressure to continue to cascade up, we need to see the Red RSI in the 3h CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 90 CLOSES below 50. If the Red RSI does win this race, we would then concentrate on the Energy in the 3h and the Red RSI in the 6h etc.
A further requirement to confirm decisive victory for the Red RSI in each race is that the Green EMA must be higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes. This requirement has so far been satisfied.
In all the Short Term group of timeframes (90, 3h, 6h & 12h) the Energy is higher than the Green EMA - as a result downward pressure prevails until we continue to see the Red RSI continue to capture territory by winning the race in each doubled timeframe.
In the 6h the Red RSI has made a bullish cross above the Blue LSMA, the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are headed up toward level 50 and the Energy has turned back up. The Green EMA has nearly crossed above 50, if it does close above 50 we have a good chance of seeing the price action rise to the vicinity of the Bollinger Band basis (currently $52934 but falling). In the 12h we have also seen the Red RSI cross bullish above the Blue LSMA and make contact with the Green EMA as it rises.
In summary:
The prevailing mood is still bearish but there are some early indications that sell pressure could be beginning to exhaust, this is not an indication that we will see a reversal to sustained upward pressure, but that we can see the beginnings of upward pressure propagating up through the timeframes, if this continues we, stand a chance for the bulls to retaliate.
Scalping Group
Short Term Group
Note
Just providing an update to point out that the Energy in the 90 won the upward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 3h which in fact never made it above 50 and has turned back down. Therefore we have to conclude that the upward pressure failed to propagate up any further and downward pressure will continue. The Energy is now predominantly higher than the Green EMA in the Scalping Group of timeframes. There are currently no upward pressure races. We are still looking for the outcome of the downward pressure race between the Energy in the 2d & the Red RSI in the 4d. Unless the Energy wins this race we are still at risk of seeing the price action in the 9d fall to the vicinity of the Bollinger Band basis (currently $38742 but rising) this becomes more likely if the Green EMA remains below 50 & closes the current 9d candle in 2d 17h.Note
Just a quick update:Although we have seen some positive price action recently and have seen indications of upward pressure in the Scalping and Short Term groups of timeframes, this upward pressure has not managed to propagate up to the 12h, daily and 2d. In these timeframes the Energy is still higher than the Green EMA indicating downward pressure, util/unless the Green EMA gets higher than the Energy we are likely to continue seeing lower highs while the Energy is above level 50 and lower lows while the Energy is below level 50.
We are very close to seeing the conclusion of the aforementioned downward pressure race between the Energy in the 2d and the Red RSI in the 4d. To recap -
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
Even if the Energy does win the race, we cannot confirm resumption of upward pressure while the Energy in the daily and 12h remains higher than the Green EMA.
The Energy in the 2d is currently at level 47.76 and the Red RSI in the 4d is at level 51.64.
We also now have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 3d and the Red RSI in the 6d.
It is also of concern that the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have just crossed below 50 in the 3d and the Blue LSMA has crossed below 50 in the 4d with the Red RSI just about to cross below 50.
If they continue on current trajectory we can see potential for the Bollinger Bands to expand and the price action to accelerate to the downside with the candle bodies sitting predominantly between the Aqua/Orange lower Bollinger Bands (currently: $49926-$46260 in the 3d and $47656-$43128 in the 4d)
In summary:
Unless we can resume a propagation up of upward pressure from lower TFs we could well see another leg down before we can finally see the possibility of a resumption to sustained upward pressure.
Near Term group of timeframes:
Short Term group of timeframes:
Note
We have now seen the result of the downward pressure race between the Energy in the 2d & the Red RSI in the 4d.The Energy in the 2d has CLOSED above 50 and the Red RSI has not yet CROSSED below 50. This signifies half the battle won for reversal to sustained upward pressure, however, as the race was triggered in the 2d, we need to satisfy the confirmation requirement - The Green EMA needs to be higher than the Energy in the daily, the 12h and the 6h. We have satisfied this criterion in the 6h and 12h but not yet in the daily. And the Green EMA has turned down in the daily, we do however see the Red RSI cross bullish above the Blue LSMA in the daily. In the 4d the Red RSI has retraced back above 50 which is for now a good sign. We now still need to see the outcome of our downward pressure race between the Energy in the 3d and the Red RSI in the 6d.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 3d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 3d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 6d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 6d and the Red RSI in the 12d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
In the 2d the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have both made contact with the Green EMA as it rises and as a result the Energy has crossed above 50, this is bullish and indicates a period of upward pressure in that timeframe. Also the Green EMA is going up quite strongly with the Energy which suggests we have a chance of it getting above the Energy.
In the 4d the Red RSI is making contact with the Green EMA as it rises but has not yet closed. If we can close like this in 1d 15h this is bullish and we will see the Energy cross above 50 at the start of the following candle.
In the Short Term group of TFs:
The Energy is higher than the Green EMA in the 90 indicating downward pressure, however the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have simultaneously made contact with the Green EMA as it rises and the Energy has crossed above 50 indication a period of upward pressure. The Green EMA is going up strong with the Energy and looks as though it could easily get above the Energy. We did see the Red RSI in the 3h win the downward pressure race against the Energy in the 90 which although it has crossed above 50 it has not yet closed. As a result we now also have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 3h and the Red RSI in the 6h.
Remember, downward pressure does not necessarily mean downward price action, it means sideways at best, downwards at worst.
In summary:
Although we still have downward pressure in some timeframes we can see some bullish sentiment and the conditions are slowly moving to support the conditions conducive to a reversal to upward pressure - but not quite yet. IMO we can go sideways with no significant move up or down until we see something more decisive. The indicators need to be continuously monitored for conclusive signs of reversal..
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