As I've said in previous posts, I fear this is a huge bull trap. I don't know for sure. I just think its a situation we have to be prepared for.
I'm a huge crypto and bitcoin bull in the long run. But I'm also a believer in cycles and patterns. And parabolic moves have an uncanny ability to follow a similar pattern.
What is a Parabolic Asset Move?
This happens when an asset is moving in a strong bullish channel for a long time but sentiment gets even stronger. Then suddenly it breaks up into an accelerated channel. Then it accelerates again, and again, as people start chasing price. The asset never goes down, so people are buying only because price is going up. Until it finally goes straight up. Then it has a crashes and it goes into a bear market.
There is also a pattern that can help us determine the length of the bear market. That first ascension into an accelerated channel marks the beginning of a parabolic move. You can see I marked it on this chart around March of 2017. This is important because the length of time to start and finish the parabola is usually the same or very similar time it takes to complete the bear market low.
Let's look at history of Parabolas
Crude Oil
Parabolic Move: 6 years, 9 months
Bear Market length: 7 years 4 months
Silver
Parabolic Move: 3 years, 6 months
Bear Market length: 4 years 8 months
NASDAQ
Parabolic Move: 3 years, 8 months
Bear Market length 2 years, 6 months
(NASDAQ the shortest bear market but made the steepest drop)
Bitcoin - The King of Parabolas
Bitcoin is amazing because its a parabola machine and has already had 3 of them. A small move in 2013 then a larger one in 2014 then of course the 2017 move.
People love to point to the mini parabola in 2013 and say "SEE, it doesn't need that long to correct, that one rebounded fast!" But if you look closely, you will see that it started its accelerated incline in January 2013. It peaked in April 2013 just three months later and then the bear market bottomed in July 2013. 3 month parabola, 3 month bear.
When you take a longer term view of the 2014 Bitcoin peak, you can see that the accelerated channel of the big parabola begin in January of 2013 and ended November 2014, 11 months later. That bear market bottomed in January of 2015, 13 months later. Again almost the same length of time as the parabola.
So the 2017 Bitcoin parabola took 9 months to complete. That means I expect this bear market to bottom around September, then start ascending to the right side of a cup and handle that will catapult bitcoin to new highs in the spring of 2019. Since bitcoin has been so strong, I would not be surprised if followed NASDAQ and peaked early around June-July, so I will be looking for lows at that time too.
Can I Be Wrong?
Absolutely. Bitcoin has done some things in its history that have blow me away. And its a very young, exciting market. It's a disruptive technology and it could boom. It could defy the odds of history. I just rely on patterns to give me realistic scenarios. My research suggests this scenario is mostly likely. Time will tell if I'm right.
What Can Change My Mind?
Just the same, it would be stupid for me to 100% count on a bearish scenario. If bitcoin really is that strong of a bull, its possible we don't make lower lows and the bear market is the shortest parabolic correction in market history. I will be looking for a weekly close with a new higher high above $11800. That would be a good start. Finish that inverse head and shoulders. Break that neckline. Then eventually get a weekly close above $13000. At that point, I'm less cautious and looking for long term bullish trades.