Bitcoin Cycle Low and Yearly Cycle
Updated
I believe we now have a cycle low. I'm long and accumulating with stop at the recent low. If that fails I will look for the 200 MA area and add on the daily reversal candle.
At this point, we have a right translated cycle and recovered the major MA's. So I plan to continue to build on cycle low dips and will generally look for a right translated yearly cycle to top sometime between July and September and it will be difficult right now to determine the exact timing.
As long as we have right translated cycles and stay above the major MA's I will be in long and bullish for 2020.
At this point, we have a right translated cycle and recovered the major MA's. So I plan to continue to build on cycle low dips and will generally look for a right translated yearly cycle to top sometime between July and September and it will be difficult right now to determine the exact timing.
As long as we have right translated cycles and stay above the major MA's I will be in long and bullish for 2020.
Note
The general background of this trade is to be long for a yearly right translated cycle. Meaning a bullish trend that makes new highs past the half way mark of a 10-12 month cycle. Whether it tops in June on a short cycle or August on a strong cycle, is not something you can predict. I'll use daily cycles and general price action. But just looking at this monthy chart you can generally see that I expect this to just be starting and we are currently working on the monthly reversal confirmation.
But as a simple guideline if BTC goes crazy and parabolic, then a shorter cycle is more likely and if we get overextended I'm more likely to take profit early. If BTC stays in a steady bull channel I'm more likely to wait to take profit.
It can fail. I have stops in place. But the chart is in a position where I want to put money at risk. I will take profit on the way up in spots and as usual I will daytrade (long only and not as often at this point).
Hope this helps.
Note
I now have a full position long. I consider this a valid cycle low and my stop is on that low. If that fails, I would not be looking to buy back into a swing trade long though I would still carry my long term BTC.
Note
All positions closed. We are clearly in risk off situation and I will not be trading BTC or any other asset. We just got the first circuit breaker trigger this morning since 1997. Stocks started crashing. Oil is down big since Sanuary from $65 to under $30 and there is an oil war. This is a catalyst and there is emotional trading. During these times, I just won't trade.
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