Bitcoin's Resistance, but not willing to drop (yet)
Updated
Still moving quite stable and inside the 3940/4000 range. Have been moving sideways for more than a week now. Few days ago it seemed like the bulls were planning to break upwards but the volume and conviction fell short and the bears took over and pushed the price down within minutes. During that drop the OI dropped 30/40 mil but very quickly it was increasing again and currently at the high again. OI doesn't always say much, but at least it shows that some bulls are not afraid to buy at these levels. These people still think it's a good price to buy. For the bears it's quite obvious, big resistance zone and so far the volume is simply not enough to really scare them. So an easy short when seeing things from their shoes.
I have drawn the yellow circles, because again it seems that fractal might still be in play. When ignoring this fractal, we can see that trend line on the left broke yesterday, but instead of a decent drop, it has been moving sideways and quite stable. It is even starting to look like a small double bottom formation. Usually when a trend line like this breaks, we see a bigger reaction. People selling longs when that support breaks or bears who simply short it. But it seems the market is just not reacting on it. After that drop happened and i posted my previous analysis shortly after it, i assumed there would be another wave down to like 3850 at least. But instead it went sideways and bear flags were becoming too big even.
Now short term, still not clear obviously but i will try to give some guidelines at least. If we moving stable within that channel on the right (double bottom shape) for around 12 hours more (less is okay but not much more), would be very likely to see at least a push up again towards 4000ish. If this happens, it is very important to see a quick move (so not hours) to the 4000. So bulls need to show some conviction that they want to push up and not that the bears let them buy it up for them to distribute even more. Because in Jan (yellow circle), that last part was also a slow sideways up movement just before that 300/500 point dump. So this is clearly not what we should see if we want to be bullish at this stage. To illustrate a bit what i mean, the blue line should be what the bulls have to show and the red line is for the bears.
Low for the double bottom could be set already, but there is also room until 3940/3920. Think the 3920ish level is a clear support, that if it breaks we should see a drop to at least 3850/3800. The bulls do not have much room left to push up to the 4200 level. Otherwise we will most likely see a big drop coming week or a higher low around 3650/3800, for the bulls to refuel again.
So as long as we move stable like this, i think up has a bit more chance again. Volume is extremely low at this point though, so be aware, not matter which side. A shake out can very easily happen. Will try to update later today
Previous analysis:
I have drawn the yellow circles, because again it seems that fractal might still be in play. When ignoring this fractal, we can see that trend line on the left broke yesterday, but instead of a decent drop, it has been moving sideways and quite stable. It is even starting to look like a small double bottom formation. Usually when a trend line like this breaks, we see a bigger reaction. People selling longs when that support breaks or bears who simply short it. But it seems the market is just not reacting on it. After that drop happened and i posted my previous analysis shortly after it, i assumed there would be another wave down to like 3850 at least. But instead it went sideways and bear flags were becoming too big even.
Now short term, still not clear obviously but i will try to give some guidelines at least. If we moving stable within that channel on the right (double bottom shape) for around 12 hours more (less is okay but not much more), would be very likely to see at least a push up again towards 4000ish. If this happens, it is very important to see a quick move (so not hours) to the 4000. So bulls need to show some conviction that they want to push up and not that the bears let them buy it up for them to distribute even more. Because in Jan (yellow circle), that last part was also a slow sideways up movement just before that 300/500 point dump. So this is clearly not what we should see if we want to be bullish at this stage. To illustrate a bit what i mean, the blue line should be what the bulls have to show and the red line is for the bears.
Low for the double bottom could be set already, but there is also room until 3940/3920. Think the 3920ish level is a clear support, that if it breaks we should see a drop to at least 3850/3800. The bulls do not have much room left to push up to the 4200 level. Otherwise we will most likely see a big drop coming week or a higher low around 3650/3800, for the bulls to refuel again.
So as long as we move stable like this, i think up has a bit more chance again. Volume is extremely low at this point though, so be aware, not matter which side. A shake out can very easily happen. Will try to update later today
Previous analysis:
Note
Maybe these triangles have meaning as well, showing the short term direction if it breaks on either sides. Note
The double bottom is not in play anymore, at the moment seems it want's to bounce up, but not enough power. Needs a bigger jump up of like 20/30 points at least. Otherwise this will just be a small bear flag and we can continue to drop more. The H&S of bitcoin seems to have a target around 3850, not sure if its a real one, but the neckline does seem to be real. ETH seems to be moving inside of a channel, which seems to be legit.
Just not very sure about this drop either now, not seeing a lot of volume here, so it's not very convincing either from the bears now. Open intrest is also not dropping. I would rather not trade these movement here. I don't like a short at this price but a long neither. I am used to seeing much bigger market sells on Bitmex at a stage like this.
Now few minutes later we made second drop to 3860, so that small bear flag played out. ETH still in that channel. Bitcoin also bouncing a bit now from that 3860 zone on the left, but still nothing special.
Note
New Bitcoin analysis:
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