BTC Daily TA Cautiously Bearish
BTCUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash.
*Cryptos are up after briefly dipping during Fed Chair Powell's press conference speech yesterday. DXY and US Treasuries are up on the Fed announcement that they still have a "ways to go" in raising the funds rate to sufficiently restrictive levels. This positive correlation is likely to continue to put more downward pressure on Cryptos and Equities. Agriculture is mixed. Equities, Equity Futures, Metals, Energy, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD and VIX are down. The third GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate is 3.6%, up from 2.6% on 11/01. This estimate is almost solely based off of September M3 Manufacturing (Shipments, Inventories and Orders) with New Orders coming in higher than in August, which signals a still strong US consumer. What the estimate ignores is ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI missing expectations (hinting at slower growth in the service sector which comprises 70% of US economy) and the widening trade deficit (more imports than exports) in the International Trade Report. Today Japan issued evacuation warnings in certain regions (again) when North Korea allegedly fired an ICBM along with several short range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan as part of their "military drills" before their planned 7th nuclear missile test. In early October 2022 NK tested more ballistic missiles in the Sea of Japan, this prompted the US to call an emergency UN Security Council meeting where they accused China and Russia of protecting NK from international sanctions. Key Upcoming Dates: October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$20200 as it attempts to defend 20k psychological support to avoid retesting the 50MA as support at $19417 support. Volume is currently High (low) and on track to favor buyers if it can close today's session in the green, if this happens it would break a four day streak of seller dominance. Price continues to hover around the VP Point of Control at $20300 for the eighth consecutive session, a clear sign of consolidation before a breakout or breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $19323, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 54.26 after bouncing off of 52.5, the next resistance is at 57.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 55.55 support. MACD remains bullish but is trending down at 258 as it approaches a test of the weak uptrend line from May 2021 at ~210 as support, if it breaks below this level it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 17 as Price continues to trade sideways around 20k, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout from here (above 21k) then it will likely aim to retest $24181 resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely test the 50 MA as support at $19417 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) 21k.
*Cryptos are up after briefly dipping during Fed Chair Powell's press conference speech yesterday. DXY and US Treasuries are up on the Fed announcement that they still have a "ways to go" in raising the funds rate to sufficiently restrictive levels. This positive correlation is likely to continue to put more downward pressure on Cryptos and Equities. Agriculture is mixed. Equities, Equity Futures, Metals, Energy, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD and VIX are down. The third GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate is 3.6%, up from 2.6% on 11/01. This estimate is almost solely based off of September M3 Manufacturing (Shipments, Inventories and Orders) with New Orders coming in higher than in August, which signals a still strong US consumer. What the estimate ignores is ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI missing expectations (hinting at slower growth in the service sector which comprises 70% of US economy) and the widening trade deficit (more imports than exports) in the International Trade Report. Today Japan issued evacuation warnings in certain regions (again) when North Korea allegedly fired an ICBM along with several short range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan as part of their "military drills" before their planned 7th nuclear missile test. In early October 2022 NK tested more ballistic missiles in the Sea of Japan, this prompted the US to call an emergency UN Security Council meeting where they accused China and Russia of protecting NK from international sanctions. Key Upcoming Dates: October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$20200 as it attempts to defend 20k psychological support to avoid retesting the 50MA as support at $19417 support. Volume is currently High (low) and on track to favor buyers if it can close today's session in the green, if this happens it would break a four day streak of seller dominance. Price continues to hover around the VP Point of Control at $20300 for the eighth consecutive session, a clear sign of consolidation before a breakout or breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $19323, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 54.26 after bouncing off of 52.5, the next resistance is at 57.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 55.55 support. MACD remains bullish but is trending down at 258 as it approaches a test of the weak uptrend line from May 2021 at ~210 as support, if it breaks below this level it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 17 as Price continues to trade sideways around 20k, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout from here (above 21k) then it will likely aim to retest $24181 resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely test the 50 MA as support at $19417 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) 21k.
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