Updated

The Most Bearish Scenario?

1M MACD Cross. A repeat of the last time would mean a Bitcoin bottom around $1600 sometime between now and the end of 2019. Not thinking this is likely just posting it for posterity.

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For those holding bags, we could be back at 10k by early Summer 2019. Probably for the last time ever.

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There is a fundamental cost of production at play. Prices may rise above or below but this most-efficient miner cost, is always constrained within the limits of the fundamental demand and supply dynamics. During these initial halving periods there are supply shocks to the market that are expressed as speculative bubbles of roughly an order of magnitude the cost of production. Now you see that 100k is probably going to sound like a good deal in the upcoming decade.

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Very close to the trend line. Bounce imminent?

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Breakdown! New low at $1600 still hasn't been hit.

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Looks like this was a good call

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NEW ATH

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