Volume Vacuums
Updated
It is generally regarded as bad news when the 50-day MA crosses below the 100-day MA. The recent cross has been confirmed by market movement. I do not see an inverse Bart-like recovery in the cards. My primary question at this time is: how low will we go?
The red and blue areas on the right side of the chart are areas of low and high volume-by-price, respectively, since 01 Mar 2019. In the past, Bitcoin price moved quickly through red areas in either direction and consolidated in blue areas.
Purple lines are rough boundaries of past ranges, which coincide with the volume-by-price areas. The actual boundaries should be viewed as fuzzy areas. The red line at $6,500 is a major volume area from 2018 and this price is likely still in the memory of the market participants.
So, if BTC drops below $7,500 with conviction (meaning, a lack of supporting volume at that level), I expect a rest around the $6,500 area before continuing down to the $5,000 area and possibly to $4,000.
Hopefully, $5,000 will be the end of the fall. Below that, the crypto market will likely suffer from a lack of morale. The trip to the bottom may take until the end of the 2019.
The red and blue areas on the right side of the chart are areas of low and high volume-by-price, respectively, since 01 Mar 2019. In the past, Bitcoin price moved quickly through red areas in either direction and consolidated in blue areas.
Purple lines are rough boundaries of past ranges, which coincide with the volume-by-price areas. The actual boundaries should be viewed as fuzzy areas. The red line at $6,500 is a major volume area from 2018 and this price is likely still in the memory of the market participants.
So, if BTC drops below $7,500 with conviction (meaning, a lack of supporting volume at that level), I expect a rest around the $6,500 area before continuing down to the $5,000 area and possibly to $4,000.
Hopefully, $5,000 will be the end of the fall. Below that, the crypto market will likely suffer from a lack of morale. The trip to the bottom may take until the end of the 2019.
Note
If we somehow make it back above $9,500-ish, I may change my bearish tone.
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