Long

Updated

BTC. Trapped between 2 log downtrends. What next? 13000?

Warriors.

Now the suspense is at its highest for the past 2 weeks.
Is Bitcoin going to break the downtrend on the log chart and go to 12800-13000?
If you remember the linear downtrend from 17000 was way more resistive at 9000, Bitcoin got slapped violently down to 8000 (had a short idea on that one one of my first posts on TV). But the downtrend on the log chart produced a little poop as you can see on EW (2).

If that's any indication, the log downtrend from 20k won't be very resistive either.
Our main danger I believe is the high of the mother bar on the weekly at 11788, what if whales decide they want to accumulate more BTC and don't want it to move higher? Would be dangerous for them thought, Crypto is worldwide they can easilly get scammed and lose millions if they try to manipulate the market.

We could drop to 10700-11000 great buy zone by don't go all in the odds are good but not super high either.
We need the log downtrend from 1700 to hold.

I didn't show EMA's but we have some strong ones as support, and also the oscillators and MA's point towards going up this week (tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/technicals/).

The suspense is soon going to be over :)

Zooming in:

Note we got a doji on the line both time.

+++ I am not a financial advisor (good luck finding one in crypto). Trade at your own risk +++

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Educational. Looks like we are seeing the typical pattern that always happens in stocks.

1- Consolidation of prices (less volatility low volume more dojis etc) the traders are waiting,
2- breakout,
3- retest,
4- price objective reached.

Read more about breakouts (this is not my site btw just a decent one xd):
investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trading-breakouts.asp

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What has been happening over and over anyway, except we fell slightly under support (here is where retail traders get scammed I posted this a billion times), expecting the same stuff to happen again.

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Summed up alot of things:

"For most novice traders, trading range breakouts will be a losing strategy: false breakouts will result in losses, corrections will fake traders out of legitimate moves, and explosive gains are rare considering the many potential ranges available to trade. But while a range breakout may be difficult to trade profitably for many traders, there are alternatives using the same chart pattern, but give the trader a better chance at success.

Ultimately the trader must give up the desire to get in at the very start of a potential move. If a breakout is going to happen, it will occur and it will be plainly visible on the charts after some time has passed. This is where the trader can put the odds in their favor.

1. If the breakout pulls back to the breakout price, and then start to move back in the breakout direction they can enter a trade in that direction, feeling much more confident that the breakout is legitimate. This strategy eliminates the psychological issue of watching paper profits evaporate and the trader exiting the trade as a result before the real move occurs.
2. A pullback to the breakout will not always occur; on legitimate breakouts a pullback to the former range will only occur roughly 50% of the time. Therefore a trend may develop. In this case a trend strategy can be implemented. (To learn more, see Trading Trend Or Range?)

Both of these methods greatly reduce the chance that the trader will be stuck in a false breakout. Once the breakout has occurred and made its first move, it is easier to step in at that point than it is to jump in right at the level that many other traders are watching. Patience will allow the tradable to make its move and reveal whether the breakout has occurred or not. At this point, the trader can move into a trade to capture the trend which now appears to be underway, or likely to emerge."

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Going to be away from a PC for 2 hours. If we go down these are the levels to watch.
If we go up 11788 and fall from there fat lines are the same only fibo's have to move (0.3 0.5 0.6).
There's alot of lines and they all matter!

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Battle of the whales or???

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Same shit as usual bla bla bla.
Some whale decided the day shall close under the trendline and madze a huge sell order at the very last second.
I feel I should make a bot to rob these people. Love it when they lose millions.

If you haven't seen the pictures "the slaying of the bear whale Oct 6 2014" awesome :)

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Well we needed a red day anyway. Thanks bearwhale?
Want to see it follow my drawing. So far so good.

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Uuuh I want to sleep, don't want my sleep to get ruined because some obese dude that always wants more decided to manipulate the market.

Btw 3 things can or could protect against these manipulations (the fact that it gets manipulated is not even up for debate lol):

- Market makers taking advantage of the whale somehow.
- Regulation/exchange sets a limit on single market buys in set amount of time.
- Bigger volume! When volume is low like this it's easier to move the price... So when volume is low it gives traders one more reason to wait on the sideline wait for confirmation of a move (a break of 11788 then retest of it for example).

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TA doesn't work very well when the market gets manipulated.
The more people trade (high volume) the better it works because the herd is always the same.
But even if TA doesn't work as well, price levels supports etc still matter. Like if we go below sub 11050 it's less favorable for the bulls etc.

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Mr Whale could want BTC to stay longer in the weekly inside bar. But Mr Whale is getting greedy and in a hurry. Mr Whale is Novogratz he isn't a pro that knows what he's doing. Nono Mr Whale is all excited and clumsy. And Mr Whale can't manipulate news. Mr Whale will buy if we get too close to 11050, Mr Whale wants to sell at 13k and then buy back in the 9-11k inside bar range.

I think I know what he's thinking, but do I?
Wish Sherlock was here to help...

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Wait why is that random Elliot line I drew acting as resistance and support? Several times. WTF?????
Mr Whale u reading dis? Ok I'm getting paranoid. Is there someone behind me?

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What are the odds that every one buys and sells at the same time? And not at a particular stop loss level. Like people see a big dip then all market sell the same 5 second range?
Unskilled trash playing imo

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Has been in the same 2H inside bar for a while.
If it magicaly stays in the same zone for just 2 days we're above the pink line (log downtrend). I'd say the chances of that happening (naturally) are 0.0001%.

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Peopel are scared with their emotions and idk what.
All the price action master race sees is higher highs and higher lows.

PRice action MASTER RACE.

Trade closed manually

Closed all position. All in USDT on Binance, positions closed on Bitmex all in XBT (bitcoin).
I'll wait for next signal. Either we go to 9200-10000 region I'll buy there SL right under 9200, or we break 11788. Either than than I don't think I'll take trades.

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I'm glad I'm finally out of that trade tbh. Finally.
Hope we get a good opportunity next.

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Tried shorting

Order Submission Error.
Order could not be submitted: The system is currently overloaded. Please try again later.

Ok so Bitmex is trash....Guess I have to try yet another site...

Trade active

Short position opened. Risky might regret it. For now I guess we bounce.
But it's unlikely we go above 11788 right now. Gamble. But RR is good anyway.

"System overloaded" fking kidding me...

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Ok 50/50 at this point

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Trying to compare this impulse with last one...

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Hey I don't want to scare anyone but be ready for this:

If we go sub 10000 close to 9200 I'm long x2.5 lever on Bitmex x no lever Binance.
If we go sub 9200 I'm shorting with leverage x 20 :DDDDD

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I'd like to bring your attention to this thing I've been watching. Anyone wasting their time reading my updates remember when I said we were very bullish because the low time frames RSI never dropped sub 30?
This is our first time! BEAR sign. Roaaar bear powa!

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When I clic on play it follows my drawing up to now...

Doesn't mean there's not a chance we go down.
We'll know in a few minutes..or hours at most :D

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May the consolidation begin...

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Sometimes EW 5 are failures. More about dis:
fairforexbrokers.com/academy/elliott-waves-trading-fifth-waves-failures/

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I got banned 1 hour for saying a bad word apparently. Didn't even know it was :(

Bear flag target is 10500. If we reach target, after that a bounce or another consolidation.

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The lower log trendline on my idea is at 10500, should get tested soon.

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The month just started but let's not forget to keep an eye on prices...

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Some of the reasons I closed my long:
* Wave 4 should stay higher than Wave 1. It went under. It's typically 0.3
* Wave 4 should usually be drawn out.
* We lose the higher low at 11050.
* 15 min and 1HR RSI below 30 for the first time since the 06 February, the first time in 1 month exactly.
* Wave 3 retraced more than fib 0.618.

So odds not so great anymore.

elliottwavepredictions.com/wave-notes/
elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/

Could be manipulation, but I don't want to gamble (unless RR is great).

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My risk to reward on this short is 3 if I aim for 10210. 6 if I aim for 9300.
Will have to judge correctly when we get to 10210 if that's the bottom or we go down further.

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Bounced a bit. It always bounces then the rsi drops violently.
So we don't know yet if the small bounce we're seeing is simply the oversold bounce or actually BTC is going up.

I guess to be a great trader you have to recognize fast when you're wrong and change direction (you're never really wrong if you're prepared for every scenario lol). And also why you have first second and third targets and take profits along the way.

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To get the best odds shorting we can look at fibo...Same as when we correct on the way up but in reverse.

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Testing 0.618 of 0.236 bounce...

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Sub 10900 and it's road to 10500 99%

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RIP. RSI barely recovered and we're crashign again.
Man when did we go from super rally to uber crash?

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Sub 10821 = 10G. Wiiiii....

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RIP Bitcoin. Let's go to hell...
Glad I cashed out and shorted when I did...

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Comparing to the crash to 6k...
Wouldn't touch BTC with an 8 foot pole rn XD

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2 Fibo in one.

Trade closed: target reached

Trade active

Close position to go *5 leverage. Entry 10705 on Bitmex.

We bounce on 0.7 fib. The other trendline is close, maybe we bounce on it but I wouldn't bet on a hard bounce.

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Now:

2 weeks ago fighting the linear downtrend:

Back in the old days fighting the downtrend 17-14k:

Last 2 times we had bounces... not this time...idk if that means something but BTC doesn't look very healthy.
Lots of people are angry... Maybe we're in the anger phase... maybe...

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Also, expecting RSI to make a lower low before bounced a few hundreds.
We should be on the pink line by then. I'll close short and reopen if we bounce 300 will have to look at it precisely when we get there, or we go sub 10210. SL will be pretty tight I guess. Pretty easy straightforward.

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IQ test. If I dropped by
11700->11176 = 524$ 4.5%
11339->10821 = 518$ 4.6%
11039->10567 = 472$ 4.3%
And there actually was a pattern.
What will my next drop be?
Considering 10812 is the high of the new drop, with 10210 as hard resistance.

Spiced it up a little and went *25 leverage. i'm a very bad example.
I couldn't care less even if I blew that entire account on Bitmex.

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So we bounced on that trendline no one on trading view noticed (I think no one noticed it).
For now... Maybe a big bounce, or the start of a battle.

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Not impossible we go test the resistance or go drop later on the lower line (maybe when it's close to 10210) and then bounce all the way to the upper one.

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4HR will get into oversold territory if we drop now.
If 10210 doesn't hold we will be VERY oversold.
Just look at what happened last times the 4HR got oversold.
Odds are never 100% but I'd say we're not that far.

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13000 still open.
6000 too...
Uncertainty range is still 9280-11788.
Break above that level we go to 13000 easy. I will short there, but I don't think the pullback will be too hard, maybe drop to 12k whatever.
If we lose 9280 tbh I don't know if 7600 will hold... Straight to 6k at that point...
Sorry for spreading FUD but if we go below that... very high chance of hard drop, just look at previous inside weeks there's tons of them (I think 30% drop is average oh wait 9000 - 30% is 6000% what a coincidence.)

How to know when FUD hits on a chart you don't even need to read the news.
Bet we can see the coincheck one here too:

Trade active

Oh come on the price is bouncing way more on Bitfinex than on Bitmex, I want to short more at a fair price.
Hope I don't get BitmexRekt again.
Was able to cancel my buys on Binance the second the price went under on finex :}

Can we make anything of this?

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Setting sell orders at each fibo level.
It looks so much like the past crash XD
The only difference was this time there's no MtGox but now, MtGox is baaaaack and Mark Kakapales has 6 figures Bitcoins to sell growl!
This guy is the antechrist I swear. His mere presence announces dark times wherever he goes the grass stops growing.

Let the people panic hard... I want to make monies!

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I guess a couple of people shorting got rekt :}
The next reKt area is at 0.5 fibo exactly, if we manage to go up there.
I just keep shorting, cut my losses if we go above 10k more or less.
At that point ANYTHING would make people panic sell and cause a big crash.

MrRenev

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MrRenev

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