Short

Updated

Bitcoin double bottom, towards 8200/8400 before dropping

Bitcoin has shown some real weakness the last few days, each attempt to rally out of the short term bearish trend failed completely. Every bull flag after a short squeeze failed up till now. At the moment it's the first time since days it shows some strength. But we are not there YET!. The 8100/8150 is a heavy resistance, if we break that one i expect a fast squeeze up towards the 8300/8400. There we have even more heavy resistances, the 8400ish is the most important one.

I have been waiting for a few days now for my entry point around 8400 to build up a short position again. I have been flat since i have closed my short positions around the 7800/8000. It was very tempting to go short and long a few times the last few days, but this sideways action is always the most deceptive movement one can get stuck in and loose money.

Now on the 1min chart it has made a wedge/flag from the rally it made, it seems to be breaking out but there is still no real conviction. Bulls seem te be very afraid to just buy again here. This is a weak signal in my view but actually confirms that the 8300/8400 could be a very good price to go short again. BUT i always wait for some confirmation before i get in. Markets always do what they want, they don't listen to TA, it's the other way around.

Even if we break the 8400ish, the purple line of that triangle i have been showing past week, is also a resistance. If i build up a short position from 8400, i will add until that purple area. I think price will follow that red line, not exactly of course! But after a small rally price could slow down and should start to show hesitation around that blue curved line. If price will follow this, than it will have created a big bear flag from the 9000 high and would predict prices around 6500/7000.

This is just an analysis, not a prediction of the future. I am telling this because my followers have increased allot, i don't take responsibility of the trades you make. I am just showing you my thoughts and i try to give real time updates of the trade that i make. Never follow a analyst blindly, just use it as a guideline. Even though i have been predicting these market very well, i am also wrong sometimes. There are a few types of analysts, you have the lifetime bull analysts (mostly here in crypto land) and you have the bears. Bulls are mostly right in a bull market, bears are mostly right in a bear market. I have to admit, i am a bear (in general) and even more on crypto's. BUT i am aware of this and i always try to stay objective as possible. Being stubborn and wanting to be right, is a long term loosing strategy.

For more information, please read some of my previous analysis and updates, you will get many answers there and you i promise you will learn allot!

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It's not a strong wedge/flag, taking to long. But it's still above that green area, so bulls have time to built confidence to start buying. If we drop below it, we could drop towards 7900/7850 (the trend line of that bigger channel

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I don't know what's wrong with this market, it's like there are no buyers left

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Bear flag

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Bulls need to get out of this one, otherwise i don't know how low this could go

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Starting to look even worse now. Still around that support line, but i don't know if it will hold. I would be really surprised if we drop below the 7700 and continue the big drop from here, but who knows :)

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If those blue lines, that bigger bear flag is already completed, and these few moves was everything the bulls had to offer, the drop could be very big and very fast!
I am still flat, maybe i will go short when we drop below it, but i rather just keep waiting for 8200/8400.
I am out for a few hours. Good luck

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This sideways action is getting quite boring :) They should keep this for the weekends.
Chances are increasing that we just won't see a move up i think. Corrections can also be in time, not always in price. That bear flag i was waiting for seems to become a triangle now

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If they can push through now, it could be the start of a reversal and a higher low.

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just exactly the same again. I saw this yesterday too but i just really though this time it would just go up again. Looks like the triangle i showed yestrday is real. Normally chances are much higher that it breaks down, but something still tells me that we gp up first

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Making this pattern just really attracts people to get in and go short, therefore they could be attracting allot of liquidity to short this while they buy it up (without pushing it up when they buy). So something like a false move down is a very realistic option for me. That after that false move they just start to push it higher and create a big short covering rally. When this comes bulls who gave up also start to come in the market again when their money so they can sell it again at higher prices without pushing the market down with their volumes.
Thing is, these kind of operation's normally would give some bigger waves than the 8400 maximum i am expecting Than one should expect more something like 8800 or 9K+. That's just why i am confused here. Normally i would just be short now and be waiting for a breakout. But somethings still stopping me and makes sure i stay flat during these horrible movements.Think i have never been flat this long in this market before

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This could be the false move. I am still flat, wont short it

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Should go up very soon, next few minutes, otherwise i am most probably wrong and we just keep dropping from here

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still a bear flag

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I am seeing some very big buy orders getting sold in to at Bitmex, Seen at least 4 orders worth $15 to $20 million.

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Normally it has dropped to much to be a standard false move, but still could. If we go up to test the resistance of that triangle and if it starts to drop again i could go short if it gets close to the low again, but i still have to many mixed signals and don't feel comfortable to go short. So, i will probably just sit this one out :)

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So my medium term view was still good, but the short term not that good :) I am still surprised a bit that we dropped this low already. I will try to post a new chart today if i can find the time. That traingle shows a target of around 7000. I am still flat to be clear!

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Now it's in a small downtrend channel. It's at the resistance now, if it breaks up we could test the triangle again around 7750. Otherwise we probably just keep on dropping towards the 7000

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I said the triangle had a target of around 7000, i just woke while saying that, i don't know how i got that number :) It should be around 7300/7400. I am working on a new analysis

botje11

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