Bitcoin forecast: the downtrend is NOT over
So, where are we right now? Everyone is acting like Bitcoin is doing unpredictable things and are getting liquidated. In this market context, which is a bubble burst, we have to keep in mind a couple of things before entering trades:
Now, what am I anticipating? I am anticipating a new wave downward a bit slower than the previous one which should hit a new low which I estimate to be around 4k8. In my opinion, we could have a trend reversal if we break the previous top around 8k8-9k (which is also where the desistance on the daily log chart is).
Obviously this should not be taken as investment advice and this is just the scenario that I'm betting on right now. A trader will NEVER have 100% accuracy, what makes you earn money on the long term is a decent risk-management, not a god-tier accuracy.
- What drives a bubble burst is market-psychology and an alternance between hope and fear: an alternance between FUD and FOMO.
While inexperienced traders and emotional investors who bought the top are trying to "cover their losses" or make quick and "easy" gains using heavy leverage on small timeframe trades, experienced speculative traders are using them as fuel, and making them fall for FOMO and FUD. - Shorts were at an all-time-high (which means that there are a lot of liquidations and stops to hit, this can give a huge momentum for an upward movement), we were getting dangerously close to the apex of a symmetrical-triangle, the order books were getting thinner by the minute and alt-coins have been rallying for a few days, this creates the perfect setup for a quick pump.
- In the context of a bubble burst, entering short term trades with heavy leverage is very risky due to the higher than usual volatility. Most inexperienced traders with poor money management will burn their accounts during such times if they use high leverage in short term trades.
Now, what am I anticipating? I am anticipating a new wave downward a bit slower than the previous one which should hit a new low which I estimate to be around 4k8. In my opinion, we could have a trend reversal if we break the previous top around 8k8-9k (which is also where the desistance on the daily log chart is).
Obviously this should not be taken as investment advice and this is just the scenario that I'm betting on right now. A trader will NEVER have 100% accuracy, what makes you earn money on the long term is a decent risk-management, not a god-tier accuracy.
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