BTC - (not) suprising weekend dump
Updated
So far the price moves just as anticipated. No surprise here - altough it seemed like it won't reach $4100-$4300, it got there eventually and offered very nice opportunity for short.
I haven't closed it yet, but I'm not going to leave it open for very long time, altough it rather depends on what the price will do.
The question is, is it still valuable to open a short atm? Well, I can't say yes for sure. I don't like to trade like this, chasing the price and I wouldn't recommend it.
Time to short was some hours ago, now it's too late. I think it will probably dump further though. There are two possibilities now - some recovering and re-testing the previous high (in that case, I'm expecting it to be rather a lower high - red arrows), or another at least equally long leg down (orange arrows). And that would be our re-test of the lows from mid December. I am not considering anything else for the time being.
The odds for the second case are significantly bigger. Another pump just doesn't fit here yet.
Previous analysis:
I haven't closed it yet, but I'm not going to leave it open for very long time, altough it rather depends on what the price will do.
The question is, is it still valuable to open a short atm? Well, I can't say yes for sure. I don't like to trade like this, chasing the price and I wouldn't recommend it.
Time to short was some hours ago, now it's too late. I think it will probably dump further though. There are two possibilities now - some recovering and re-testing the previous high (in that case, I'm expecting it to be rather a lower high - red arrows), or another at least equally long leg down (orange arrows). And that would be our re-test of the lows from mid December. I am not considering anything else for the time being.
The odds for the second case are significantly bigger. Another pump just doesn't fit here yet.
Previous analysis:
Note
So far it looks like the red arrows will be the case. It dumped just a little bit to test the support and got bought within a few hours. Very fast bounce indeed. Or... it could be just a game of market makers. I am just curious how this will play out at this point. Definitely not a place to open any position - if not just because of the BS that is happening now, there is no clear signal, it can go any way now. It looks like bulls are still alive, sort of. I won't mind if they actually manage to push through $4000+ resistance zone, SL is set and my longer term position from mid December is waiting just for that.
There is something else that bothers me, but about that in next idea.
Note
A week has passed, so it's time for update I guess.The price seems not doing much, but this sideways move was expected after all. The question is, does this prolonged sideways price action invalidated this idea? The bears tried to break down two times and failed, indicating that the whole move from $4300 could be just a correction and we haven't reached our true top yet. I still think this isn't time to go long though. Even sort of a bearish wedge has been printed on lower time frames. The volume is almost non-existent and it rather depends on what some whales are gonna do... which is impossible to predict of course. Time will tell.
Note
The wedge has broken down now to test support.Note
And the wick is pretty long :) There was a lot of stops to fish out I guess. It's all about that these days, to force some liquidations or trigger some SL. Longs were piling up and something like this was only a matter of time.
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