Short

Bitcoin believers are fighting the bears and scared believers,

Updated

This 'long' term chart still looks bearish, but there are some signs of strenght. The failed attempt to go higher at the arrow at 16.400 was a very weak signal!. But the other 2 arrows show that drops towards low 13K is seen as a good buy opportunity. Volume is also not decreasing, which shows some strenght. A rise above 15.500 suggests the bearish sentiment is weakening. To stay weak, it should stay below the read area around 14.500

My targets are still below the 10K, but it should drop below the 13K within 24H. I have already closed half my short position yesterday at 13.650, because i dont want to risk to much in this hype. I could be adding again around 14.500/15.000

Note

It is trying to turn up again and make an end to this downward correction, So far no succes, but to stay weak it should drop the coming 24H, even now as you can see in the chart, the pink cirkel, its trying to turn up again, making higher highs and higher lows. The red area is a big resistance now, it already failed to go above this level, showing a sign of selling pressure! The grean area is an important short term support, below this level it could accelerate downwards again!

Note

For strenght it should stay above the green line, if it drops below, than the last chance is probably 13.900 to get higher again.

Note

This will be the final attempt, it succeeds and it will rise above 14.600 or it will drop and make a new low. As i am writing this it has pushed through, now it should stay above 14.400 to stow strenght

Note

Bitstamp chart, looked like it was making a small H&S, while dropping out the cirkel, and than all of sudden you see a big spike up, actually showing strenght there. I will put my stop at 15.600, wich is break even for the half position i did not close yesterday. The consolidation was taking to long, than confidence can return slowly, as it just did. But it still has to overtake the 15.600 and finally the 17.600 to make an attempt for a new ATH

Note

In the first comment i mentioned those 2 drops that looked like a break of support, could now be described as bear traps. It is showing some real strengh now, with the spike up through the resistance at 14.500. It's not really getting sold, so i will close my other half if it get's near the 14.600 again, so i would still have around 1000 points profit, i see that the chances are bigger now for a rise in price than another drop. So this is a new sign for me and i have to act and adjust on it. It could still make a big drop, but than i would be hoping for itand ignoring what the recent price movement is suggesting.

Note

And many alt coins are showing very bullish short term patterns, this confirmed my doubt

Note

IF it drops towards 14.600 i will put in a trailing stop of 150 points, risking that for a chance this attempt could fail. If it doesn't i will probably close at 15.100 ensuring at least 500 points

Note

Again the chart of Bitstamp, showing te same pattern, an H&S with another attempt to make it fail, but now you see a clear difference in volume, let's see if we can lock up something in our memory :)

Note

Lesson learned :), so the low volume did predict something here. It failed to go higher and a few hours later it dropped 1000 points. Something to keep in mind

Note

What is happening the last 2 days, is why sideways action is always tricky, especcialy with the Bitcoin, any minute strenght can turn into weakness. It broke out the 14.400 yesterday with real conviction, giving the impression the are not letting it go, witht those 2 bear traps as some sort of confirmation, but than the follow up fails and it drops below the 14.400 again! I mentioned in a previous update, just when it broke out, that it had to stay above the 14.400 to show strenght. Once again it's haning on the support of the bearish flag, but i have seen these kind of moves before, that just when it seems to be dropping and falling through support, than all of a sudden it gets bought really strong (what i mean with a bear trap). That's why trading the Bitcoin is always very tricky. A drop below 13.800 would be a first big sign of weakness.

Note

I have to be honoust now, i cant really say what the direction will on the 5 min and 15 min time frame. I can only refer to previous highs and low. I dont these really see any patterns on these time frames

Note

I can only see some sort of H&S, but these are the worst, H&S should be formed at top and bottoms, i dont like these that much. It did drop under the neckline but the retrace seems unsuccesful. If it shoots back up above the 14.400 than a rise further has the biggest chance

Note

No bounce at all, probably go lower now

Note

Target 12.800

Note

Wrong chart, the previous one. Target is around 12.900.

Longer time frame shows support around 13.100 and last support around 12.000

Note

Target perfectley reached, now lets see what it does, if it does not get above 13.500 again, expect another big drop

Note

This small H&S suggests 13.650, lets see if the neckline gets broken, in a very negative momentum, these small H&S tend to fail and than continues to accelerate further down. Other way around as i showed yesterday for the bullish version

Note

It failed again and immediately dropped 300 points, there was no support at that cirkled area to push it through the neckline

Note

These 2 ideas are possible (all that it stays below the 13.500 ofcourse. It looks like it's making a decending triangle. Normally it drops out on the downside, but upside is also an option

Note

So far it seems to follow the blue line, for weak momentum it has to stay below the 13.500. If it does, i expect 12K

Note

I keep seeing the buy orders in the book of 100 BTC again like it's giving buying support, i have not seen these kind of orders for a month or longer. I don't look at the book all day long, so maybe i miss it sometimes, but on average it has been much less than before. It's difficult to say if it's smart money or just buying support to not let it drop to much. Just something i notice and have mentioned many times a few months ago.

Note

Last update for now, nothing has changed yet, there is now real buying or a big spike up, what normally is needed for Bitcoin to form a real short term bottom. So changes are bigger that it will go down some more. The 13.600 is a good level to say the negative momentum will turn to neutral for the short term.

Note

It stayed perfectly under the 13.500! And target 12K even over reached. Looks like its making another flag now, but my guess is it will cool off again and will bounce up around that blue area to go sideways again. IF it does drop, than it will drop really fast and hard again.

Note

It's in that blue area, understand this is nothing more than a guess, based on things i have seen many times before, but it depends on how negative the momentum still is! Alts are also turning more negative now, dropping below support levels. So it could be different this time.

Note

And as predicted a bounce from that blue area, chances are the biggest it will get close to the blue area again and maybe from that point go more up and sideways, preparing itself for another big drop later today or tomorrow

Note

As predicted again, going towards the blue are again, i expect it NOT to drop below it.

Note

I really thought they would not let it drop below the 12K, but the buying power, conviction and tricks it had untill a few weeks ago, seem to belong to the past now.

That trendline around 11.800 is the neckline of the BIG H&S i was talking about on 20 december. But it needs to drop at least 500 points below to say the nekline is broken. For now it's still within that green support area, lets see it it drops through or bounces of it. Chances are bigger it wil drop below, because it's hanging around that level and not making a real bounce up WITH big volume

Note

First small resistance now at 12.300, i think it will drop back to around 12.000 and maybe from that point it will try to go higher again towards the 13K. For the ones who have been short from 14K and higher, i would not do anything, because the market is very weak now, it could make a big drop any second

Note

Flag suggests 13.200, If it does not reach it, not even 13.000, than it's a sign of weakness nd it will drop back to 12K

Note

It's showing some strenght now, this could even lead up to the high 13K area. If it stays above 12.600, than it will go to 13.500. The blue line is what i think will happen in the next 24H. Things can change though!!

Note

12.600, should stay above it

Note

Small H&S, probably go to 12.500 again

Note

I am gonna short it for a small trade at 13.100

Note

I have put a stop for this trade at 13.300. There is no real buyying power and volume, but there is also no real selling at this resistance area, so chances are bigger now that eventually it will take out this resistance, but i am already in the trade, so if it gets below my entry level of 13.100, i will lower the stop to 13.200 and trail the the stop with 100 points. To minimise the loss.

Note

The bigger picture: I think it will go up untill the 13.800, at this level it will have corrected 2/3 of the drop from 15.000 2 days ago, the same amount as it corrected from the 16.500 to the 13.300 bottom a few days ago. At the 13.800 is also a former support level, the green area, this should be a small resistance now. IF it reaches this level i will probably add some more to my longer term short position.

Note

The yellow area shows that this is a real trading channel, drawing lines is easy, but drawing the right ones is not. even for me it's tricky sometimes. But this is a real one.
I did not expect it to drop below the 13.000, this again shows a sign of weakness. However volume is low the last few hours, so it is difficult to say something with confidence now.
A drop below the 12.500 is a big sell signal, it will drop out of this channel AND it wil drop below that green area wich shows several but and sell movements. So if it moves towards the 13.700 i will ad some to my short position, otherwise i will just let it ride

Note

Last update for the date, more educational.

Here you can see the small H&S i talked about a few hours ago, the right shoulder was tending to go up instead of turning down, this in combination with the very low volume, created a move in the other direction! Now the same thing is maybe about to happen, a bigger H&S, but again the right shoulder tends to do upwards and also in combination with very low volume. It's not exactley the same ofcourse, the Pattern is much bigger and it is making the right shoulder after a 600 point drop, also making a bearish flag pattern. I will talk about this again tomorrow.

Note

So it was some what of anH&S this time, the bearish flag however was perfect and reached it's target also. The H&S should have dropped 200 points extra. But when you look at Bitstamp, it did reach it's H&S target, but the H&S was smaller! But everything happened on low volume!

Note

Now we are seeing a simmilar H&S, caused by that strange 450 point spike down. Lets see what will happen now. Volume will probably stay low today and tomorrow, so be aware of allot of manipulation!!

Note

Bitstamp chart here, but they are all showing similar patterns, seems like we are going towards the 14K level. The patterns suggest even somwhere in the middle of the 14K's. I will probably add around 13.800.

Note

And it broke out with volume and conviction! I have not added yet because of the volume, It's almost certain it will reach the 14.500/14.700! It also broke out the decending trend channel from the 16K top. All short term bullish signs! I will probably go short around the 14.500.

Note

Now the Bitfinex chart again, the target here is a bit higher, almost 15.000. At this point several resistances come together. If it breaks above this pink area, than i consider that the bearish momentum is over.

-The target of the H&S is around 15.000
-The bottom of the big bearish flag will be around 15.000 and should be a resistance now.
-That red area is also a resistance.

IF it breaks above the 15.00o and can even break the 16K, than for me the downtrend is over and we should expect a new ATH again!

Note

It's on the neckline again, if it does not bounce up fast, it will probably make another big drop

botje11

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.