Put It in a Frame
Updated
Recap: BTC’s price reached Red 1 after a play between Decision 1 and 2 on the previous analysis. Interesting how it built up and then went looking for liquidity.
Take a picture in your mind of the price action, frame it and hang it on a wall in there. A good question, not that you would be able to answer it beforehand, would be as to what drove the buyers in the 45300 to 45800 range. When price stagnates within a band, obviously you will end with a battle just beyond the perimeter (inside out and outside in competing). The selling just above that Decision 2 tells Money Man that it was short term trading for smaller percentage profits. Hindsight is 20/20 and lives in the past. Certainty lives in the past. Trading is about probabilities and here it worked out if you were not an eager seller at the lows, or a buyer at the highs. Is that not normally the case? – Thing is that a lot of traders here are breakout traders. There is not much wrong with that if you consider how quick the market can move, but the thing (also as always) is that you need to have a plan.
Conclusion: The question is again: what intent is behind most of the volume now? Is it to scoop up liquidity and sell higher, is it “for keeps” or will it simply be overwhelmed by negative sentiment? We will not know, but Money Man has his sights on these levels as to give him a plan. Remember: No guarantees, only probabilities. Very Important to me: Please like if you appreciate the effort, Please comment and develop this further and Please follow if you see this analysis thread going somewhere you would like to know about.
Take a picture in your mind of the price action, frame it and hang it on a wall in there. A good question, not that you would be able to answer it beforehand, would be as to what drove the buyers in the 45300 to 45800 range. When price stagnates within a band, obviously you will end with a battle just beyond the perimeter (inside out and outside in competing). The selling just above that Decision 2 tells Money Man that it was short term trading for smaller percentage profits. Hindsight is 20/20 and lives in the past. Certainty lives in the past. Trading is about probabilities and here it worked out if you were not an eager seller at the lows, or a buyer at the highs. Is that not normally the case? – Thing is that a lot of traders here are breakout traders. There is not much wrong with that if you consider how quick the market can move, but the thing (also as always) is that you need to have a plan.
Conclusion: The question is again: what intent is behind most of the volume now? Is it to scoop up liquidity and sell higher, is it “for keeps” or will it simply be overwhelmed by negative sentiment? We will not know, but Money Man has his sights on these levels as to give him a plan. Remember: No guarantees, only probabilities. Very Important to me: Please like if you appreciate the effort, Please comment and develop this further and Please follow if you see this analysis thread going somewhere you would like to know about.
Note
Previous BTC analysis 
Note
A short term analysis within this analysis 
Note
Next longer term analysis 
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