Wyckoff for BTC
Updated
April 23rd to June 7th
For the next 45 days, we are probably going to see an accumulation. In special, a Wyckoff accumulation pattern forming under the prior ATH due to five main factors:
1- The Triple Witching time span from March to June
2- The Data-driven approach by the FED and low unemployment rates
3- The Fast rise of prices from 27 to 73 within few months, due to ETFs
4- Geopolitical Uncertainty
5- Financial Uncertainty (Germany and UK in recession)
And to see the maturation of these events:
1- The next triple witching starts at June 7th and intensifies in June 14th
2- The Dynamics between Rate Hikes and raise in unemployment has a two year timespan to reach its full effect, meaning that in June/July we should see a rise in the indicator, even though the illegal migration has proven to bring a macroeconomic impact in american services and labor markets
3- The fast rise brought Long-term investors to realize profits as we can see in the on-chain indicators of LTH_SOPR, as it usually happens when we consolidate in an prior All Time High
4- This geopolitical dangers are the only factor that cannot be predicted, but we get back to the saying "buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets", meaning that when the uncertainty is high, the assets should be oversold.
5- The Financial Uncertainty already made European Central Bank (ECB) to release the will to make a rate cut in the next meeting, The Bank of England (BoE) also stated that they might cut rates before the FED. The Swiss central bank already started the QE. Before them, most of the development countries have started cutting rates such as Brazil.
On-chain
The Short term holders realized price is at 57k usd, meaning that under it, newcomers will sell at Loss, and with that we have one of the main buy indicators according to the past (and the logic that old investors tend to buy cheaper and sell higher), bringin the accumulation under 57k as the final spurge to these entities.
Just to clarify, Long term holders average prices are at US$ 19k
Technical Analysis
With that introduction, we pass on to the Technical Analysis and perceive that we could have a Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern.
As the Wyckoff only has a general guideline, the
tradingview.com/x/KWmMYfaV/
For these reasons, the buying targets should be in:
46k , 52k , 54k and 58k
The percentage targets range from 10% of the buying portfolio in 58k and 40% at 46k for the day in the range.
For the next 45 days, we are probably going to see an accumulation. In special, a Wyckoff accumulation pattern forming under the prior ATH due to five main factors:
1- The Triple Witching time span from March to June
2- The Data-driven approach by the FED and low unemployment rates
3- The Fast rise of prices from 27 to 73 within few months, due to ETFs
4- Geopolitical Uncertainty
5- Financial Uncertainty (Germany and UK in recession)
And to see the maturation of these events:
1- The next triple witching starts at June 7th and intensifies in June 14th
2- The Dynamics between Rate Hikes and raise in unemployment has a two year timespan to reach its full effect, meaning that in June/July we should see a rise in the indicator, even though the illegal migration has proven to bring a macroeconomic impact in american services and labor markets
3- The fast rise brought Long-term investors to realize profits as we can see in the on-chain indicators of LTH_SOPR, as it usually happens when we consolidate in an prior All Time High
4- This geopolitical dangers are the only factor that cannot be predicted, but we get back to the saying "buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets", meaning that when the uncertainty is high, the assets should be oversold.
5- The Financial Uncertainty already made European Central Bank (ECB) to release the will to make a rate cut in the next meeting, The Bank of England (BoE) also stated that they might cut rates before the FED. The Swiss central bank already started the QE. Before them, most of the development countries have started cutting rates such as Brazil.
On-chain
The Short term holders realized price is at 57k usd, meaning that under it, newcomers will sell at Loss, and with that we have one of the main buy indicators according to the past (and the logic that old investors tend to buy cheaper and sell higher), bringin the accumulation under 57k as the final spurge to these entities.
Just to clarify, Long term holders average prices are at US$ 19k
Technical Analysis
With that introduction, we pass on to the Technical Analysis and perceive that we could have a Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern.
As the Wyckoff only has a general guideline, the
tradingview.com/x/KWmMYfaV/
For these reasons, the buying targets should be in:
46k , 52k , 54k and 58k
The percentage targets range from 10% of the buying portfolio in 58k and 40% at 46k for the day in the range.
Note
20h before the expected leaving the 58.2~60.14k range, the Open interest and LSR, along with the CVD confirmed that until Today's close, if not below 60.14k, we can forget the RED Scenario and enter the Orange one.trdr.io/snapshot/CAB2AA6A031ED0AA.png
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