BitcoinLong
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)
Updated
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Key Fundamentals:
1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised 900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The 900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. (Thanks to NxjaUNHaCucnyxaB’s insightful comment last week.)
2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.
3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is now neutral to overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. (Note: The R:R for betting trend changes simply doesn’t appeal to me. Yes, you can bet it every time and never miss a large movement, but you also need to deal with the 30-40% win rate and high operational/execution risks.)
4. Margin & Futures Market Actions:
A ridiculous amount of longs were present at the 11.5k level, and a "likely long squeeze alert" appeared before the drop to 10k. Currently, the margin market is overly bearish, but not enough people is on board with the “bearishness” so we do need the open interest to pick up a bit to fuel an ideal short squeeze. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, last week’s drop doesn’t impact this group turning bullish after 3 months of indecisiveness. The position is for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. Check out the March resemblance.
5. Global Market Impacts:
To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance.
6. CME Gap
90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25 from 9.6k to 9.9k. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause.
Key Technicals:
1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below this level, trend will likely turn bearish).
2. Elliot wave: likely in wave (ii) of III. Wave (ii) currently counted as a zigzag and is potentially finished.
3. RSI neutral to bearish:
Failing the RSI MAs and in a bearish trend. However, for the short-term, an upward attempt at the MAs is needed. Meaning I'm leaning bullish for the week ahead.
4. MACD bearish:
In bearish trend. No sign of up-cross yet.
Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
Key Fundamentals:
1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised 900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The 900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. (Thanks to NxjaUNHaCucnyxaB’s insightful comment last week.)
2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.
3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is now neutral to overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. (Note: The R:R for betting trend changes simply doesn’t appeal to me. Yes, you can bet it every time and never miss a large movement, but you also need to deal with the 30-40% win rate and high operational/execution risks.)
4. Margin & Futures Market Actions:
A ridiculous amount of longs were present at the 11.5k level, and a "likely long squeeze alert" appeared before the drop to 10k. Currently, the margin market is overly bearish, but not enough people is on board with the “bearishness” so we do need the open interest to pick up a bit to fuel an ideal short squeeze. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, last week’s drop doesn’t impact this group turning bullish after 3 months of indecisiveness. The position is for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. Check out the March resemblance.
5. Global Market Impacts:
To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance.
6. CME Gap
90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25 from 9.6k to 9.9k. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause.
Key Technicals:
1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below this level, trend will likely turn bearish).
2. Elliot wave: likely in wave (ii) of III. Wave (ii) currently counted as a zigzag and is potentially finished.
3. RSI neutral to bearish:
Failing the RSI MAs and in a bearish trend. However, for the short-term, an upward attempt at the MAs is needed. Meaning I'm leaning bullish for the week ahead.
4. MACD bearish:
In bearish trend. No sign of up-cross yet.
Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
Note
Not sure what's wrong with the scaling. The red underlined text is meant to be "worth a long, preferably after the open interest/value picks up".Note
Price now close to the active trader group’s purchase price. These have been good accumulation opportunities historically as the reluctance to sell with no profit in a bull market eventually will push up the price level. 
Note
Bull run emotional cycle: depression, disbelief, hope, optimism, belief, excitement, thrill, greed, euphoria. Which phase do you think we are in? My pick is disbelief. 
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