The above chart shows the price of bitcoin plotted on a log scale. This is a way of easily seeing the percentage movements. On a log scale, a crash from $10 to $8 looks the same size as a crash from $10’000 to $8’000. They are both 20% crashes. If it were a linear scale, the $10 to $8 crash would be virtually invisible.
As can be seen, bitcoin has suffered many price declines of more than 20%, and some more than 50%. Yet, after each price decline, a price recovery has started. If bitcoin was a fad, a bubble, a scam, or a mania, the price would never have recovered from even the first price crash.
Yet, each price decline has been followed by a recovery to a new all-time-high. We are in the middle of one such price recovery right now.
Look carefully at the graph. As you can see, we are very close to breaking the all-time-high of $19’000. Look how fast prices recovered after previous declines. The latest decline, and subsequent recovery, are playing out like all previous patterns. Thanks to the log scale, you can see the normality of the current price behaviour and where it is likely to go.
I have my view of where the price will be in one year. (Clue: much higher). Tell me your guess. I will award a thumbs up to every answer which is within 30% of my target. Thumbs up also for any thought provoking answers.
I will publish my target price tomorrow as a reply to this blog.