I really like the price structure that we're seeing from INDEX:BTCUSD. The weekly KST and Chaikin signal remains intact, the daily chart shows promising pattern and trend, and the 4hr chart is showing a breakout.
Weekly KST & Chaikin This chart uses the KST indicator in the middle, which combines multiple rates of change to identify momentum. On the bottom it uses the Chaikin oscillator which is essentially accumulation vs distribution in money flow. The Chaikin oscillator is overlayed with a Bollinger band.
On a weekly time frame the KST has given reliable signal, but also several false positives. We can use the Chaikin oscillator to confirm entry and exit opportunities. A new uptrend is signaled when KST is bullish and the Chaikin oscillator breaks above its upper Bollinger band. When KST turns bearish we can confirm when the Chaikin oscillator OR the lower Bollinger band move below 0. This is important because what we are seeing today looks like what we saw in the 2016 opportunity.
This strategy has signaled 8 trading opportunities since 2010, all with positive returns. Four of the opportunities had durations of 120-200 days from entry to exit. Three of the more extreme opportunities had durations of 280, 640, and 1000 days.
It almost goes without saying that the most extreme opportunities came in the earliest days. KST 2010-2014
KST 2015-2019 - note 2016 where KST is bullish but the Chaikin and BB remain above 0.
KST 2020-current
Daily Timeframe On the daily I am showing 2 green anchored VWAPS that are tied back to a candle in January 2023 where recovery began. Fib extension, fib retrace, and the break above and support at 68k were all very constructive.
We can almost make a case for an inverted head and shoulders. It appears in continuation and not as a reversal pattern. So, while bullish, a measured range of this pattern is not enough to go on.
Using forward Fib time zone from the beginning of January to the January low, a reverse Fib time zone with the 144 on the January low, and a FIb fan from the January low to the February 26 retest give us great confluence for an area of interest ranging up to 78k.
4hr Chart Lastly, a closer look on the 4hr chart shows a break above and retest of the descending trendline from the 5/21 high.
In this timeframe we can see a measured range from the May low to the break above the red anchored VWAP from the March high, along with two fib retraces offering confluence for a range of 74-75.6k.
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