BTC - NEXT TARGET

In this chart you can see my view on the short term move for BTC. In scenario 1 we retest the trendline and most likely bounce upwards towards the 0.382 fib level of 52289. In scenario 2 we do not have a breakdown but instead hold the 0.236 and have a little move up. Based on the RSI I would say that scenario 2 is more likely because it is already hugging the bottom of the zone. Let me know, what do you think? Scenario 1 or Scenario 2? Or do you have other ideas, I would like to know your perspective on this chart!
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