BitcoinShort
Questions Halving Promotors Never Want to Answer
Many people here are eager to explain the bets people should make based on the halving but they're never willing to answer the obvious questions about the hypothesis.
Here's a collection of questions I must have asked here 100 times in replies to my posts that I've still not gotten an answer to:
Why the indices correlation?
When you run an analysis on SPX price moves and BTC price moves post halving, they have a coefficient of 0.85. This means all the statistical evidence points towards BTC moving in tandem with risk on/off cycles in equities.
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Why do people ignore this correlation when it is as reliable (or more) than the halving?
Why does the exact same moves in indices and BTC get treated totally differently?
When has the halving thesis ever deviated from simple SPX correlation?
If there are no deviations, why isn't it best to assume it's related to SPX tracking?
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Why would the entire market know an event to move price higher was coming and then wait an exact number of days to take action on that?
If you've been in the market any length of time you'll have surely heard the saying "Buy the rumour, sell the news". You may have also heard, "Markets prefer to travel than suddenly arrive". This has been a guiding principle of all markets for all time. Why is the halving a "Sell the known coming event, then ignore the news for x days and then buy the event after the fact?
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Given all halving dates are already known, why isn't this priced in now?
Why in the biggest FOMO market there is would there be this organised "Waiting period"?
Why has game theory and market dynamics not led to front running?
How do these supply/demand dynamics reflect anything about S/D known in markets?
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What are the failure conditions of the halving bet?
I have some of the dumbest convos on this. People insist I MUST BE LONG NOW to not miss out on the halving and then when I ask them what level price can not go under inside of the halving theory ... it gets real fuzzy. And when you dig into it, the answer generally ends up being "Up to 70% drawdown".... Okay - so trying a short here is fine inside of that, right?
-----
Why are people making all knowing statements about exactly what should happen and unable to give the most basic risk control?
What happens to people who listen to you if you're wrong?
Do you have plans to let them know if the theory fails?
If not, why are you not telling them the risk if wrong is 70% (Inside of accepted risk).
And I suppose the idea is to just entirely ignore the limitless risk if the whole thesis is wrong?
-----
When has the BTC halving idea ever overcome a SPX drop?
I've been told various times in 2020 there was a deviation from the halving cycle because there was a swan event. Fair enough ... but then this means that the halving forecast will only be right if nothing broadly bearish happens, right? In any instances where we've had halving theory vrs indices bear move - following the indices has won.
-----
Why is this not considered evidence against the thesis and for the correlation?
Why are you not caveating your forecasts with this known risk?
Is it far to say the BTC cycles thesis can easily fail if there's outside events?
-----
These things simply do not make sense. They're elephants in the room. People act like the cycles thing is some sort of esoteric knowledge that only a select few know. That's nonsense. I have a kid cousin who can't tie his shoelaces yet but can tell you what the halving forecast is.
He does not really understand everything he's saying. He's just repeating things he's heard ... but, that's kinda true for most of you to be honest. Because it takes about 5 mins to understand the halving thesis. Takes about another 1 min to come up with the obvious tests and objections and then maybe takes 10 mins to test those and highlight the flaws.
There are some people who've spent literally hours and hours on my posts berating me about why I should be blindly following the halving and in all of this time they've not answered the questions I think should be thought of in the first minute.
And I do ask them. Directly and repeatedly. They change the topic or go quiet. To be honest, most of the time they start to drop insults. It's wild, when you think about it.
"I am heralding in the future of finance and here to tell you about this halving cycle which I know everything about and expect to be infallible".
"Okay. Could you answer a few questions I have about this?"
"LMAO. Have fun staying poor".
===
Think about how disconnected the way BTC bulls act is relative to what they proport to be a part of.
Why are you not eager to answer these common sense questions?
Here's a collection of questions I must have asked here 100 times in replies to my posts that I've still not gotten an answer to:
Why the indices correlation?
When you run an analysis on SPX price moves and BTC price moves post halving, they have a coefficient of 0.85. This means all the statistical evidence points towards BTC moving in tandem with risk on/off cycles in equities.
-----
Why do people ignore this correlation when it is as reliable (or more) than the halving?
Why does the exact same moves in indices and BTC get treated totally differently?
When has the halving thesis ever deviated from simple SPX correlation?
If there are no deviations, why isn't it best to assume it's related to SPX tracking?
-----
Why would the entire market know an event to move price higher was coming and then wait an exact number of days to take action on that?
If you've been in the market any length of time you'll have surely heard the saying "Buy the rumour, sell the news". You may have also heard, "Markets prefer to travel than suddenly arrive". This has been a guiding principle of all markets for all time. Why is the halving a "Sell the known coming event, then ignore the news for x days and then buy the event after the fact?
-----
Given all halving dates are already known, why isn't this priced in now?
Why in the biggest FOMO market there is would there be this organised "Waiting period"?
Why has game theory and market dynamics not led to front running?
How do these supply/demand dynamics reflect anything about S/D known in markets?
-----
What are the failure conditions of the halving bet?
I have some of the dumbest convos on this. People insist I MUST BE LONG NOW to not miss out on the halving and then when I ask them what level price can not go under inside of the halving theory ... it gets real fuzzy. And when you dig into it, the answer generally ends up being "Up to 70% drawdown".... Okay - so trying a short here is fine inside of that, right?
-----
Why are people making all knowing statements about exactly what should happen and unable to give the most basic risk control?
What happens to people who listen to you if you're wrong?
Do you have plans to let them know if the theory fails?
If not, why are you not telling them the risk if wrong is 70% (Inside of accepted risk).
And I suppose the idea is to just entirely ignore the limitless risk if the whole thesis is wrong?
-----
When has the BTC halving idea ever overcome a SPX drop?
I've been told various times in 2020 there was a deviation from the halving cycle because there was a swan event. Fair enough ... but then this means that the halving forecast will only be right if nothing broadly bearish happens, right? In any instances where we've had halving theory vrs indices bear move - following the indices has won.
-----
Why is this not considered evidence against the thesis and for the correlation?
Why are you not caveating your forecasts with this known risk?
Is it far to say the BTC cycles thesis can easily fail if there's outside events?
-----
These things simply do not make sense. They're elephants in the room. People act like the cycles thing is some sort of esoteric knowledge that only a select few know. That's nonsense. I have a kid cousin who can't tie his shoelaces yet but can tell you what the halving forecast is.
He does not really understand everything he's saying. He's just repeating things he's heard ... but, that's kinda true for most of you to be honest. Because it takes about 5 mins to understand the halving thesis. Takes about another 1 min to come up with the obvious tests and objections and then maybe takes 10 mins to test those and highlight the flaws.
There are some people who've spent literally hours and hours on my posts berating me about why I should be blindly following the halving and in all of this time they've not answered the questions I think should be thought of in the first minute.
And I do ask them. Directly and repeatedly. They change the topic or go quiet. To be honest, most of the time they start to drop insults. It's wild, when you think about it.
"I am heralding in the future of finance and here to tell you about this halving cycle which I know everything about and expect to be infallible".
"Okay. Could you answer a few questions I have about this?"
"LMAO. Have fun staying poor".
===
Think about how disconnected the way BTC bulls act is relative to what they proport to be a part of.
Why are you not eager to answer these common sense questions?
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