Bitcoin Upward Waves
Updated
Since the previous Bitcoin Impulse wave analysis got very long, here the subsequent analyses for Bitcoin Upward waves will be presented. Anyway, continuing from the last analysis; the correction started when Bitcoin touched the major channel's upper line and the horizontal resistance area (The chart of previous analysis is provided for reference in blow). There are two possible areas for the current Bitcoin't correction wave. The first is the purple triangle, and the second is the orange one. The only difference between these two areas is that if the Bitcoin reaches the orange triangle, the major ascending channel will be invalidated, since Bitcoin has breached the channel's bottom. Let's see what happens.
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This chart is placed here for reference of the last previous analysis.
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Based on the two previous correction waves, something like this could unfold. Let's see what happens.
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In the past, Bitcoin done this type of behavior a couple of times. Sometimes, when Bitcoin wants to go up, a double correction waves pattern is repeated. The highest high and lowest low in the second correction wave of the double correction waves are usually surpassing the expected areas; that means stop loss hunt and liquidation. Let's see what happens.
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Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating in a triangle pattern. Let's see when Bitcoin breaks this pattern.
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So, Bitcoin broke the triangle pattern and went up toward the 47K-48K area to retest. Let's see how Bitcoin react to this area.
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So, Bitcoin reached the 47K-48K area, and after a short rest, broke above this area. There is a minor/weak divergence in RSI; if Bitcoin could break above the previous highest high (yellow line), Bitcoin can move further up toward the 1.618 Fib level and the channel's upper line. Let's see what happens.
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So, as said before, after Bitcoin broke the 47K-48K area, it moved further up toward channel's upper line. On the other hand, a triple divergence formed that is a sign of correction; albeit a small one. From now on, the 47K-48K area can act as a support area. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin is moving up more and more. It seems an inverted wedge pattern might be forming. If true, Bitcoin could see 54K-55K area before make a correction. If correction happen, it could end at the 47K-48K area or the inverted wedge's middle area. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin is oscillating in a small rectangle area. Let's see in which direction Bitcoin breaks this area.
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So, Bitcoin is still oscillating in the rectangle area. It is most probable the BTC break this area upward and goes toward the upper line, then correction. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin broke the rectangle area in which it was oscillating and went up; but went up much further than anyone anticipating. Anyway, Bitcoin is approaching a major horizontal resistance area: the Bitcoin's ATH. The current Bitcoin's upward wave seems strong, maybe since it is the 3rd wave; thus, it is not unusual for Bitcoin to break this ATH area upward. Also, notice the ascent was done at an increasing rate and as a result upward lines' angles are becoming more steep; so be aware of correction, since it could be sudden and fast. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin broke the ATH (purple line), went up a little, and then the correction started. It seems wave 3 didn't extend as much, so wave 5 could be the one that extends beyond normal. Also, it's too soon, but the current correction could end in the 53k to 61k range (yellow rectangle). Let's see how long it takes for correction wave 4 to finish. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin reached the first correction target; the 61K area. Also, it seems Bitcoin also broke the first minor uptrend line, although final confirmation yet remains to be seen. But, if true, the next minor uptrend line could be the next, or could the one to support the Bitcoin. Let's see what happens.
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So, the confirmation for breaking the first minor uptrend line didn't come, and Bitcoin went up again. It is clear that this line support Bitcoin, and for correction to continue, it has to break. It seems that correction could unfold in a-b-c pattern. Also, a divergence in RSI has formed too. So, let's see if Bitcoin can break this line, and how much will the correction lower the price.
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What will happen? Bitcoin breaks the rectangle consolidation zone upward and continues up. Or breaks the rectangle consolidation zone downward to complete the a-b-c correction pattern. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin broke both the consolidation zone and the minor uptrend line; downward. That means a-b-c correction going to unfold. Also, keep in mind that correction can turn into a complex one to include double zigzag and/or flat also. Let's see what happens.
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It seems a Cup and Handle pattern might be in play too. The Cup part is finished and currently the Handle part being unfolded; correction. Also note that since Bitcoin's Halving is near, the correction (Handle) part probably won't be deep. Let's see what happens.
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Not stopping! It seems Bitcoin is breaking the minor pattern upward; signaling the continuation. Most probably, Bitcoin is keeping up the Gold's upward move. It has been seen in the previous upward movements that Bitcoin and Gold show convergence. Let's see what happens.
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So, besides the previous comment in which Bitcoin tried to trick traders, Bitcoin is progressing based on the earlier analysis. Still, the yellow box is valid, as is the uptrend line. Correction wave 4 is continuing to unfold. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin still oscillating in this consolidation zone. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin finally broke the consolidation zone and is going down toward the major uptrend line. Also, notice that yellow box present the possible area in which correction can end; both price-wise and time-wise. Let's see where Bitcoin's correction ends.
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Also, on higher time-frame, weekly, Cup and Handle pattern is progressing and Bitcoin is moving down in the Handle section. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin reached the price area, which is a possible reversal zone, but time-wise, it might need a few more candles to complete the correction cycle. These are the two possible scenarios for Bitcoin. Let's see what happens.
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So, here is another scenario for Bitcoin, derived from analyzing USDT Dominance (see related post). It seems Bitcoin is moving in a minor descending channel and is currently at the upper line posed to come down. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin reached the first Fib time zone for possible reversal. Also, there is a chance that a minor inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is forming; if true, let's see if Bitcoin can break the neckline or not.
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The yellow box in previous comments is scenario one for the current Bitcoin correction. There is a second scenario that can play out too.
If one looks at the previous impulse and correction waves of Bitcoin, the impulse took 142 days and the correction (the gray box) took 151 days to finish. Then, the next impulse wave started, and it took 184 days to finish. Now, the current correction wave either will last for 151 days (like the previous one) or will maintain the ratio and thus last for 195 days. Based on this scenario, there are many days still left for Bitcoin correction to end. Let's see what happens.
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So, it seems Bitcoin is breaking the minor Head and Shoulder's neckline; if successful, Bitcoin can reach the blue upper line. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin broke the Head and Shoulder's neckline, made a minor pullback, and went up to reach the inverted wedge pattern's upper line. Is bitcoin going to continue its upward move? Or make a minor correction and reach the green uptrend line? Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin made a pullback on the broken minor horizontal area. If Bitcoin wants to break free from the current major correction pattern, the inverted blue wedge pattern, it has to break the upper line with a somewhat big candle. Otherwise, Bitcoin will oscillate at the top and possibly make another correction toward the green uptrend line. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin did oscillate at the small consolidation zone below the wedge pattern's upper line. It seems the correction wave has finished, Bitcoin went up and broke the wedge pattern, and wave (5) is unfolding. Let's see how high this minor wave can go.
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So, the 5th wave was a truncated one, and thus Bitcoin didn't go up. It seems the correction wave is unfolding, and we have to wait and see if it is a simple a-b-c or will turn into a complex one. Let's see what happens.
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Updating the second scenario for Bitcoin correction (read the May 15 post); If we compare the Bitcoin's previous correction with the current one, a similar pattern could be seen. And the end of this pattern is in line with the forecasted vertical lines, where Bitcoin correction might end. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin broke the uptrend line; as a result, the second correction scenario for Bitcoin gain more probability. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin correction is underway. It is possible a harmonic pattern might occur. If true; have to wait for Bitcoin to first break the right leg's minor downtrend line. Let's see what happens.
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So, harmonic pattern completed, Bitcoin broke the right-leg downtrend line and is going up.
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So, it seems the harmonic pattern was not yet finished, and Bitcoin continued downward. Anyway, Bitcoin went down and reached a major horizontal resistance area. Bitcoin's correction will most likely end in this area. On the dark side, if Bitcoin breaks this area too and goes downward, the major uptrend line must come to the rescue - the last hope. Let's see what happens.
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So, the harmonic pattern finally ended and Bitcoin broke the right leg's downtrend line and is going up. Let's see if Bitcoin can reach the 66.5K target area. Also, Bitcoin will most probably make another downward move toward the inverted wedge's lower line; tough might not reach it. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin went up and reached the 66K area; touched it. There is a second, less probable target, that Bitcoin might try to reach; have to wait and see if Bitcoin has the required momentum or not. Also, Bitcoin will most likely make another bearish wave that will enter the desired time range. Let's see what happens.
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Updating the May 1 comment: the Cup and Handle pattern is still valid and Bitcoin is still in the Handle part. Just have to wait and see how future waves unfold. Let's see what happens.
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So, according to analysis, Bitcoin reached the second minor horizontal area, and it seems it's time for correction. This minor correction wave is most likely going to be the last one. After that, Bitcoin is going to break the current consolidation/major correction pattern upward, and the next Bitcoin rally will start. Let's see what happens.
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So, as said in the previous comment, it's time for correction, although I did not think that the correction would be so deep. The inverted wedge pattern is still valid, so there is no reason to panic. When both the inverted wedge and the major uptrend line are broken, only then we can panic :)
Also, time-wise, the two vertical lines that show the Fib time zone for possible continuation are more important. As a result, there is still time left for the Bitcoin correction to end. Let's see what happens.
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So, after Bitcoin made a local lower low, within the correction pattern, it went up and then entered the possible reversal time zone. Also, notice that wave E within the correction hasn't finished yet, so there could be some minor pullback when wave E is done. First, have to wait for Bitcoin to reach the correction's upper line, and possibly break it. Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin is still in the correction phase, and it seems a minor harmonic pattern has formed; thus, a small upward move is possible. However, Bitcoin's behavioral movement shows signs of continuation in favor of correction. As a result, it becomes more likely for Bitcoin to break the major upward trend line (the double white lines). If this happens, the low-probability scenario explained in the "Bitcoin; historical analysis" post gets more confirmation to happen. (read the related post). Let's see what happens.
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So, Bitcoin broke the minor downtrend line, signaling an upward continuation for the current wave. Let's see if Bitcoin can complete the major wave E within the correction pattern.
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