BTC - The Denial of a Parent!
Updated
Bitcoin is very sentimental to many out there trading and investing in the cryptos. I see it in the comments. It's like your child, say something bad about someone's child, the wrath of a parent in denial appears. However, many miss the reality of life. No child is perfect nor exempt from the pitfalls of adolescence, just like Bitcoin is not exempt from market cycles. Good parents like good investors must separate the emotions from the reality. Yes we all love our kids and want them to be perfect, but the reality is they go through the same peer pressures as other adolescents. To deny this and think your kid can do no wrong, will result in failed parenting, just like to deny bitcoin is exempt from market corrections will result in failure as an investor.
Over the past few days the market swings, trials and tribulations, have caused much confusion. Many analysts have revised their counts due to swings and price points. KEEP IN MIND TIME FRAME. An analysts that has $5800 as a target does not necessarily imply that we are headed to the moon. It implies that's where they see it going next in the "trading time frame". You should always understand the difference between a short term trade and broader cycles. Note they always close positions when it gets there!
I caution you, everyone makes money in a bull market, unless you arrive late for the party, but wealth is destroyed in corrections. Traders get emotional, trade on greed and fear. Even the most astute market veterans will tell you trading corrections are the most difficult. This is why most investment advisers tell you not to sell and ride out the storm.
Investors:
If your an investor for the long haul, this is what you should be doing. Batten down the hatches and if your waiting to add to your position be patient. We are not in a bull market yet. You want to fully vested in bull markets and not trying to time the bottom of bear! Of course it does not hurt to add on dips in small positions, but normally when we do this, we find we could by lower next week, so allocate portions of what you want to invest for the long haul.
Traders:
If your a trader you need to be diligent about taking small losses quickly, tight stops, and happy with small gains. Trying to hit a home run vs Nolan Ryan in the world series is a recipe for striking out! If your new, you should practice with a very small portion of your funds, and I mean SMALL. No more than 1%. This is where sharks and whales have the advantage. You must play as if you were at a table with Helmuth, Ivey, Chan and Bronson and you have the smallest stack!
Overview:
The past few days the market has started to reveal more information, the path becomes clearer as we move along. Remember when we said $4200 was our target $4400 and $4600 were in play? Well at that time we didn't know the direct path but we can see it starting to unfold. I've updated the chart with how I see the correction unfolding at this point (subject to change). The trend has become more clear. Now this is far from the only path, it's one of many. Does it unfold this way? Who knows, but the market is due for a correction whether it happens here or we get another run like we did at the end of September. Eventually a longer term correction will happen. I would rather see it now then later, as the higher we go, the more impact the correction is.
I'm sure someone who is a hater will say: "you said $4200 it went to $4370 you were wrong"! If at $35 I tell you $42 is a target price, and it hits $43.70 that's not a miss! Your not proving anything other than your ignorance. Please move on!
Critical levels such as $4700 $5000 need to hold, 3500ish needs to hold as well. If it doesn't we look at our charts again.
Thanks, and if you cannot provide positive input rather you agree or disagree. Please move on. There are several out there with arrows pointing up and some sort of a graph that gets to $12,000 by December.
Over the past few days the market swings, trials and tribulations, have caused much confusion. Many analysts have revised their counts due to swings and price points. KEEP IN MIND TIME FRAME. An analysts that has $5800 as a target does not necessarily imply that we are headed to the moon. It implies that's where they see it going next in the "trading time frame". You should always understand the difference between a short term trade and broader cycles. Note they always close positions when it gets there!
I caution you, everyone makes money in a bull market, unless you arrive late for the party, but wealth is destroyed in corrections. Traders get emotional, trade on greed and fear. Even the most astute market veterans will tell you trading corrections are the most difficult. This is why most investment advisers tell you not to sell and ride out the storm.
Investors:
If your an investor for the long haul, this is what you should be doing. Batten down the hatches and if your waiting to add to your position be patient. We are not in a bull market yet. You want to fully vested in bull markets and not trying to time the bottom of bear! Of course it does not hurt to add on dips in small positions, but normally when we do this, we find we could by lower next week, so allocate portions of what you want to invest for the long haul.
Traders:
If your a trader you need to be diligent about taking small losses quickly, tight stops, and happy with small gains. Trying to hit a home run vs Nolan Ryan in the world series is a recipe for striking out! If your new, you should practice with a very small portion of your funds, and I mean SMALL. No more than 1%. This is where sharks and whales have the advantage. You must play as if you were at a table with Helmuth, Ivey, Chan and Bronson and you have the smallest stack!
Overview:
The past few days the market has started to reveal more information, the path becomes clearer as we move along. Remember when we said $4200 was our target $4400 and $4600 were in play? Well at that time we didn't know the direct path but we can see it starting to unfold. I've updated the chart with how I see the correction unfolding at this point (subject to change). The trend has become more clear. Now this is far from the only path, it's one of many. Does it unfold this way? Who knows, but the market is due for a correction whether it happens here or we get another run like we did at the end of September. Eventually a longer term correction will happen. I would rather see it now then later, as the higher we go, the more impact the correction is.
I'm sure someone who is a hater will say: "you said $4200 it went to $4370 you were wrong"! If at $35 I tell you $42 is a target price, and it hits $43.70 that's not a miss! Your not proving anything other than your ignorance. Please move on!
Critical levels such as $4700 $5000 need to hold, 3500ish needs to hold as well. If it doesn't we look at our charts again.
Thanks, and if you cannot provide positive input rather you agree or disagree. Please move on. There are several out there with arrows pointing up and some sort of a graph that gets to $12,000 by December.
Note
I'm surprised not one comment on why I used the PPO vs the MACD ;)Note
The MACD is only good for short time frames or slow movers which is not BTC and other coins. For slower moving stocks it's relative for faster i'm not so sure especially exponentially moving equities. for example a $1 movement when a stock is $10 is 10%. A $1 movement in a stock that is $40 is only 2.5%. MACD only looks at $1. PPO looks at it from a percentage standpoint which is why I'm playing with it as an added strategy. Bitcoin moving $100 when it's at $2000 is different then moving $100 at $5000. I want to see consistent percentage gains not price gains!Note
I apologize, I realized I had ABC labeled in correctly. Note
Quote of the Day by Paul Tudor Jones "“I’m always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have”Note
Nothing overly bullish or bearish in the charts very mixed at this point. But strength may be wanning along with volume.Note
As you know i've been monitoring DASH in an attempt to see if it is a possible hedge. Looking at the correction it looks as if it is following the same pattern. Its just one of those things us traders do when the market is quiet ;). NO this is not a sell BTC and go to DASH. No i am not shorting BTC here either. I'm simply looking at correlations to become more knowledgeable in how the market moves.Note
The trend is your friend and why trends are so important.
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