Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls are still too weak to close strongly above 84k but they kept the market above 80k. Another neutral week which is good for the bears. We are getting close to the big bear trend line, where I expect market to create another strong bear leg down to 75k or lower. Plan did not change for the past 2 weeks. Above 87k we could test 90k and maybe higher, which would damage the bear case big time. Below 80k we likely do the next leg to 75k or even 70k. Clean bear flag but remember, they can also break to the upside. I just don’t think it’s likely given the current structure.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 70k - 94k
bull case: Bulls need anything above 90k/91k to break above the bear trend line but giving this some room, even 94k could still not be enough for them to stop this bear trend. They are doing good at keeping the market above 80k and if they prevent the bears from testing the previous ath at 73.8k, that would be the third try and likely the last before many bears give up and bulls could test higher again.
Did not change much to last week since market has not invalidated anything of it.
Invalidation is below 70k.
bear case: Bears need to close the bull gap down to 73800, no ifs or buts. If they do not create better selling pressure next week and close a daily bar below 80k, market has likely turned more neutral again and both sides have equal odds of the next impulse.
Invalidation is above 94k.
short term: Neutral. Need strong selling momentum again for me to join this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
comment: Bulls are still too weak to close strongly above 84k but they kept the market above 80k. Another neutral week which is good for the bears. We are getting close to the big bear trend line, where I expect market to create another strong bear leg down to 75k or lower. Plan did not change for the past 2 weeks. Above 87k we could test 90k and maybe higher, which would damage the bear case big time. Below 80k we likely do the next leg to 75k or even 70k. Clean bear flag but remember, they can also break to the upside. I just don’t think it’s likely given the current structure.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 70k - 94k
bull case: Bulls need anything above 90k/91k to break above the bear trend line but giving this some room, even 94k could still not be enough for them to stop this bear trend. They are doing good at keeping the market above 80k and if they prevent the bears from testing the previous ath at 73.8k, that would be the third try and likely the last before many bears give up and bulls could test higher again.
Did not change much to last week since market has not invalidated anything of it.
Invalidation is below 70k.
bear case: Bears need to close the bull gap down to 73800, no ifs or buts. If they do not create better selling pressure next week and close a daily bar below 80k, market has likely turned more neutral again and both sides have equal odds of the next impulse.
Invalidation is above 94k.
short term: Neutral. Need strong selling momentum again for me to join this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.