BTC/USD - Time to reflect, there is still hope. HODL!
Hey guys, I know it's hard to see the market like this. Wanted to share some thoughts.
We're in uncharted territory right now as BTC never had such a severe correction in the middle of a presumed bull market. Many alts dropped 80% which is unprecedented. Many expected to have a correction and then pump higher, yet here we are a sea of red for over 2 weeks without a break. This price action is not supposed to happen in a bull market, unless we topped here. Which brings an interesting discussion, because it is hard to understand why this bull run was only for about 4-5 months... after we consolidated for two years around 10k. Hence, there are a few scenarios:
1. We are in a 2013 scenario with two tops. Last time BTC dropped 75% and then did a 10x again. If this happens the next top will be around 300k.
2. We're in the early stages of a bear market. I find this unlikely as this drop was too fast too soon.
There is still hopium that a bear market can be avoided if BTC will not fall under 30k. If that happens I can't see how we will recover anytime soon. Hence, we could end up with a triangle formation that will eventually break us higher towards our next 10x top. See chart.
However if we continue to fall and drop under 30k we will have a new lower low and with the MA50 dropping under MA100, then there is no hope for a sustained bull run in the short/medium term. Likely we will get months of consolidation and then hope for another rally at some point.
The chart as of now should give us a relief rally, we can't keep dropping like a rock and we're above a massive support. At the very least, we should expect a pump to 50k at some point and form a nice symmetrical triangle. If we eventually break above it, then scenario 1 can activate, if we break below, then the bear market will be confirmed.
Do not be upset, no one could have predicted this price action, the best one can do is secure small profits on the way up and buy the dip. BTC will continue to go up long term.
P.S. And I am not f***ing selling. Hold onto your coins, buy when cheap. Hoard BTC as much as you can.
Like and follow if you liked this idea! Also join my crypto community to stay in touch!
We're in uncharted territory right now as BTC never had such a severe correction in the middle of a presumed bull market. Many alts dropped 80% which is unprecedented. Many expected to have a correction and then pump higher, yet here we are a sea of red for over 2 weeks without a break. This price action is not supposed to happen in a bull market, unless we topped here. Which brings an interesting discussion, because it is hard to understand why this bull run was only for about 4-5 months... after we consolidated for two years around 10k. Hence, there are a few scenarios:
1. We are in a 2013 scenario with two tops. Last time BTC dropped 75% and then did a 10x again. If this happens the next top will be around 300k.
2. We're in the early stages of a bear market. I find this unlikely as this drop was too fast too soon.
There is still hopium that a bear market can be avoided if BTC will not fall under 30k. If that happens I can't see how we will recover anytime soon. Hence, we could end up with a triangle formation that will eventually break us higher towards our next 10x top. See chart.
However if we continue to fall and drop under 30k we will have a new lower low and with the MA50 dropping under MA100, then there is no hope for a sustained bull run in the short/medium term. Likely we will get months of consolidation and then hope for another rally at some point.
The chart as of now should give us a relief rally, we can't keep dropping like a rock and we're above a massive support. At the very least, we should expect a pump to 50k at some point and form a nice symmetrical triangle. If we eventually break above it, then scenario 1 can activate, if we break below, then the bear market will be confirmed.
Do not be upset, no one could have predicted this price action, the best one can do is secure small profits on the way up and buy the dip. BTC will continue to go up long term.
P.S. And I am not f***ing selling. Hold onto your coins, buy when cheap. Hoard BTC as much as you can.
Like and follow if you liked this idea! Also join my crypto community to stay in touch!
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