Over the previous month I've spoken a lot about the risk of a failed breakout of the high.
We're now very close to where I think we'd have the first big obvious tells that is happening.
If there's a false breakout of the high, there'll be a rug pull. This is something I've said over and over again.
Rug pulls usually come with bad news, so it's particularly concerning when we have the technical bear setup (Which has been apparent for a while) and complimenting bad news.
If this is going to be a false breakout, we'd be in the early stages of a trend reversal.
This leg would probably continue to somewhere around the 40K area.
Somewhere down around 40K there'll probably be a good buy but this would be a strong sell the rip setup.
If the 40k swing hits, the ABC correction hits and there's a new low- I can't see any reason to believe BTC isn't heading back to the 2022 lows.
All of the conditions for a rug pull are present.
The TA.
The crazy public attitude to risk.
The bear shaming.
And now ... we might have the news event.
If there's one thing I've noticed as a recurring theme for big reversals, no matter how much detail you explain the technical break setup in long before the break comes someone invariably ends up telling you how you got lucky because of the big news event.
There's always a big news event.
2020 was Covid.
2022 was Russia/Ukraine.
When bad news comes at major confluences of resistance levels, it's worth paying attention to.
And there really could not be more pending rug pull setups in risk assets.
We're now very close to where I think we'd have the first big obvious tells that is happening.
If there's a false breakout of the high, there'll be a rug pull. This is something I've said over and over again.
Rug pulls usually come with bad news, so it's particularly concerning when we have the technical bear setup (Which has been apparent for a while) and complimenting bad news.
If this is going to be a false breakout, we'd be in the early stages of a trend reversal.
This leg would probably continue to somewhere around the 40K area.
Somewhere down around 40K there'll probably be a good buy but this would be a strong sell the rip setup.
If the 40k swing hits, the ABC correction hits and there's a new low- I can't see any reason to believe BTC isn't heading back to the 2022 lows.
All of the conditions for a rug pull are present.
The TA.
The crazy public attitude to risk.
The bear shaming.
And now ... we might have the news event.
If there's one thing I've noticed as a recurring theme for big reversals, no matter how much detail you explain the technical break setup in long before the break comes someone invariably ends up telling you how you got lucky because of the big news event.
There's always a big news event.
2020 was Covid.
2022 was Russia/Ukraine.
When bad news comes at major confluences of resistance levels, it's worth paying attention to.
And there really could not be more pending rug pull setups in risk assets.
Note
I'm not saying I know there'll be a crash but I highly encourage you to ignore the opinions of those acting like there's no risk of a crash. We have textbook expressions of the patterns we see before crashes.
The risk is obvious.
If it's not obvious, then this is a lack of context on how bear market moves form.
It is .... obvious.
Obvious things don't always happen, but it's foolish to ignore the risk.
Pending butterfly failure.
Read how this is a crash signal here:
Note
Previous low has broken, Bulls need to defend imminently to turn it into some weird false breakout. All the textbook stuff say down, down and down from here if the break holds.
40K target. 61K time of writing.
Note
What would it imply if BTC was breaking major supports at the same time MSTR and COIN are having big chart head and shoulder neckline breaks? Would not seem good.
Here's some other sketchy setups in crypto charts:
Note
A break usually comes in three stages. 1 - There's the obvious break. It's really obvious something bearish just happened.
2 - There's a big distraction. Something to make everyone forget something bearish just happened.
3 - Then the true break comes, but by this time most people have flipped to wanting to catch knives.
Note
Here's a post of the previous BTC break. Notice the same stages. 
Break. Sucker rally. Range. Spike out of range and then it slams.
Classic bear break stuff and we potentially have the range and spike out trap in now. This could become a clean break.
Note
More on the potential break setup along with some of the other tells of weakness. 
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.