Expecting Next Top $17k April 16 - Halvening

Updated

Adjusting projection for spring/summer top due to fact that halvening will affect it.

Previously in 2016 there was a big peak 22 days before the halvening and lots of opportunity to get in at lower prices.

Using ghost bars also maps to about the same 17k price I had before. I am expecting a parabolic move up into the mid teens and will be scaling out a bit.

I will only somewhat attempt to catch the top but mainly will be getting myself positioned to catch the post halvening dump. I'll probably catch that with leveraged positions from the start rather than using 1x then scaling into 3x after price confirms my trade.

June 16 will still seem a little scary for me to hodl through it but I think that by navigating through the halvening chop I should be OK to survive a bit of drawdown mid summer. I think this year is going to end with a roar and I want to be fully long for it.

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Current plan that includes 44 day pre peak due to the way ltc handled it. In the red box I will be looking at ways to protect profit and scale out ahead of the halvening.

I am expecting some kind of parabolic move that sends btc to the mid teens due to crypto noobs getting all frothy about limited supply from the halvening. Maybe I should start watching cnbc to see when they mention it.

I will be watching the megatrend indicator closely and will scale all the way out or in when it changes color but I will also be doing elliot counts in order to pre-empt it and get a better fill than what it provides.

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On btc: "Had Days 25-55 Days After Halving To Get Back In" so once the halfing happens it can take the wind out of the market and there may not be a huge need to get back in. Scaling in only by catching low hanging wicks might be the way to go.

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LTC gave about 140 days to get back in. However I think the recovery time this cycle will be shorter because of the position in the power law curve and also defi is creating a lot more demand for crypto, especially eth.

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Using a 4 week donchian channel to buy a breakout and get back into the trend looks like a robust way to do it since it performs about the same as megatrend on both ltc and btc

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Also should have a plan to catch a potential dump afterward. I think this is from miners who don't understand trading who find that their rewards are half and they have to sell equipment and coins to keep their lights on. Last time this happen about a 3 or 4 weeks afterward with a 30% one day drop.

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There's already evidence of crypto noobs pumping btc up thinking the halving is bullish, from twitter:

“The Weiss Crypto Rating for #BTC is now A- (excellent), thanks to improving fundamentals and positive price action ahead of Bitcoin's next halving.”

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Prior halving showing the various emotional states of a wave, my favorite stage (which I have never seen mentioned on any other chart) is "amnesia" where everyone has long forgotten about the blood on the street and the asset is just sitting there waiting for someone to scoop it up.

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Looking at also using a simple fisher transform crossover on the weekly chart to know when to force an entry back in after the halving, it seems to work on btc:

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On LTC it also needed a cross above the bottom line to get a valid signal

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RSI Divergence cross back above zero may be good last ditch signal to get back into trend also, on BTC:

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However on LTC it was not the best signal and produced one fake out:

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Hash Ribbons may be the best way so far to trade this, it is actually modelling the exact effects of the halving anyway. Idea is to buy on first green day after hash ribbons have turned red:

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An idea to force back into the trend would be to buy when BTC production cost oscillator goes back above zero:

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Looking at the 2012 halving buying on the 1st green day during red miner capitulation also worked very well. This was much better than waiting for the crossover which would have worsened your cost basis by 45% or so.

The reason I think it's safe to not wait for the crossover is that halvings happen during BULL years of the 4 year cycle, so it's important to be aggressive getting back in when trading in and out.

mljones

Related publications

HODLing to $17k / June 16

by mljones

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