Long

Updated

Mean Reversion

After readjusting levels and timings I thought about the return to mean theory, investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp , and give BTC a shot in the daily timeframe, so with the current pace we should get back to the mean between 2 to 5 days from now on and give the first try on the moving average 50 aproximately @15000 with a set of futures contract to expires Friday 26, 6 days ahead, including CME and others: getjumbucks.com/settlement/
There is a natural reason to think all this will converge together and as always it will be a hell of a fight !

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BTC is flerting to loose the 0.5 Fibo on 3H and test the MA50 on 3H timeframe, bears are already talking about 8k again:

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We just retraced to 0.5 Fibo on 3H with a bear trap down there, it is still early to say but now it looks the path is clear to 15k:

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Epic battle so far with BTC back to 10k, with still 4 days left for futures expiry date, so 8k could be a reality with return to mean delayed several days, and it could also setup a very strong pivot here at 10k. We are shorting alts so far like XRPBTC, with a chart in another idea, which means our wealth is not only preserved but increasing. Shorting BTC directly does not provide good returns as it is the market dominant coin. I will provide strategy for shorting alts each one with its own idea, not here.

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I think the market will resolve in the next 10hrs the fate of BTC for the futures expiry date 26th, we should return to the mean or go for all the bears dreams, the 8k and below. Although it is possible for the market to just stay sideways from now on sitting on the 10k milestone I think it is low probability:

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Ever surprising battle, looks like bears gave it all to have a new low and just on complete perfetion timing bulls started to drive the market back to the mean. On this scenario with a futures expiry soon prices usually move very little as a result of intense battle but I think there is a surprise bull move back to mean going on:

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BTC is working it's way to cross the MA on 4H, this cross will ignite a rocket propelling on BTC with margin calls on bears putting double bull pressure. Although crossing MA usually requires a double hit with a second pivot, I think this time It will come with a surprise:

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After crossing 4H MA50 got stuck on 3H MA50:

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No surprise for bulls or bears, the market is just full of triangles running sideways, will probably go this way till expiry date, lefting the surprise to the last minutes:

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Full scenario with my vision:

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With still some hours left to futures expiry the market continues sideways, with some alts looking bearish like XRP... The channel looks more narrow now without either a new low or high, didn't touch our 0.236 Fibo as expected, so nothing really going on:

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I was expecting a last bear run to maximize return on futures contracts just before expiry, touching or making a bear trap below our 0.236 Fibo. A big trap means bulls are stronger for higher places, as it was looking weak for a big run. On the other side, bears are running out of time to create a new low, without a new low the market will on bull control for some days. I also am expecting wider swings since futures is over:

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Lack of liquidity is playing on bear favor so far, with those margin shorted since 9k looking still on game but soon or latter those positions will get liquidated with a run above the very strong red dash line resistence and bulls will finally get a decent return to the mean:

On the other side, bears could successfully mitigate any bull run by taking advantage of low volumes engolfing to a panic sell 8k and below:

Be prepared for any case !!

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We got above the very strong red resistance line, and may test it from the upside:

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I was expecting a faster test to the red line but it happens later than expected, and this change means the market will move now wider and faster than anticipated either way because bears will try to setup a bulltrap and go straight to 8k while bulls will try to stay above red line and go straigh to 15k:

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