Bitcoin 8 year forecast
Updated
The white vertical line is Jan 09.
The white horizontal line is my personal estimation for a ceiling in price and adoption.
The blue lines are my personal extrapolation of the range using historical peaks and dips.
A stabilization between 100 000 and 200 000 $ would put Bitcoin between 2 - 4 trillion $ market cap.
This would be relatively small compared to global money supply but still a wonderful achievement.
... and a nice ride :----))
I expect the 2018 bubble to overshoot down to 2 500 $ around falls 2018.
An important aspect of this scenario is a significant decrease in volatility, making then Bitcoin a reasonable option for storage of value.
With all sorts of arguments, some people predict up to a million $ / Bitcoin, while some others predict it to eventually be worthless.
Things often turn out to be a compromise, which is the principle of a "market", and this scenario is my personal vision of this compromise.
The white horizontal line is my personal estimation for a ceiling in price and adoption.
The blue lines are my personal extrapolation of the range using historical peaks and dips.
A stabilization between 100 000 and 200 000 $ would put Bitcoin between 2 - 4 trillion $ market cap.
This would be relatively small compared to global money supply but still a wonderful achievement.
... and a nice ride :----))
I expect the 2018 bubble to overshoot down to 2 500 $ around falls 2018.
An important aspect of this scenario is a significant decrease in volatility, making then Bitcoin a reasonable option for storage of value.
With all sorts of arguments, some people predict up to a million $ / Bitcoin, while some others predict it to eventually be worthless.
Things often turn out to be a compromise, which is the principle of a "market", and this scenario is my personal vision of this compromise.
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Note
A little update...
For the last 6 years, it's been a pleasure to see this prediction being a success. However, I want to point out a small, but important, divergence between the prediction and the price. If you zoom in on the chart and look at the top blue curve and the cycle tops:
- top of 2017 bull run, the prediction was around 21 800, but the price only reached 19 900 (-8.7%)
- 1st top 2021 bull run, the prediction was around 74 000, but the price only reached 65 000 (-12.2%)
- 2nd top 2021 bull run, the prediction was around 88 000, but the price only reached 69 000 (-21.6%)
- top of 2025 bull run, the prediction is around 155 000 around the beginning of 2025, so I expect the price to reach -34% less that 155K, which is 102K (102/155=0.66). Quick explanation: between 2017 and 2021, the difference between the blue line and the actual tops, almost doubled from 8,7% to 17%, so I almost doubled it again to 34% for 2025, and we get 102K actual top.
So, the difference was almost imperceptible in 2017, then it became quite visible in 2021, and I expect it to become significant for the next top, likely in 2025.
I would conclude by saying that --of course everything is possible and this is just a prediction-- but I see two facts here:
1. 100K is a massive psychological resistance
2. this prediction has a great track record of 6 years and points to BTC toping slightly above 100K.
I know that seems like a modest target, but BTC to 100K will later look like it was the elephant in the room for this cycle. And it is more than enough for massive gains in memecoins.
Fingers' crossed!
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