Bitcoin ATH fractal, Dec 2017 rally
Updated
I showed this fractal several times lately, since it has been a nice guideline so far. The red circles are not really the same though. Back then we had a good double bottom, this time we don't but have been moving bit similar up nonetheless.
The right shoulder is very different this time compared to 2017, that one was completed much faster and the rally was much stronger than we are seeing now. Since the low 11k's, it took 3 short squeezes to get the price above the neckline, while back then it was a lot of FOMO buying. Also the volume seems to be different now. Back then, the volume was much more convincing, this time it seems to be lower.
Below we can see the chart of Coinsbase. It's difficult to compare the volume from then to now, since the popularity of exchanges is not the same nowadays. The difference here is very big, but when looking at Bitmex, difference is also there, but much smaller.
I mentioned in my previous analysis that we need to see convincing volume on the breakout. But the confusing thing is, the speed of the rally is bullish. I showed 2 bullish versions, where one would show a good strong big rally, while the other one showed a slow rally, similar size but lower volume. So now we have a mix of both on our hands now.
When looking at the initial dump from the high, back then it was around 19% and this time it was around 26/25%. Not a huge difference, but stil 5/6%
Also in the red resistance zone as back then. So we could see some rejection now. Back then it was just a small drop of 400 points, which can be seen as 300ish point at current price. So as long as we stay above the 12.000ish, this fractal stays alive. Don't follow it blindly, just use it as a possible road map if things do play out.
Previous fractal:
The right shoulder is very different this time compared to 2017, that one was completed much faster and the rally was much stronger than we are seeing now. Since the low 11k's, it took 3 short squeezes to get the price above the neckline, while back then it was a lot of FOMO buying. Also the volume seems to be different now. Back then, the volume was much more convincing, this time it seems to be lower.
Below we can see the chart of Coinsbase. It's difficult to compare the volume from then to now, since the popularity of exchanges is not the same nowadays. The difference here is very big, but when looking at Bitmex, difference is also there, but much smaller.
I mentioned in my previous analysis that we need to see convincing volume on the breakout. But the confusing thing is, the speed of the rally is bullish. I showed 2 bullish versions, where one would show a good strong big rally, while the other one showed a slow rally, similar size but lower volume. So now we have a mix of both on our hands now.
When looking at the initial dump from the high, back then it was around 19% and this time it was around 26/25%. Not a huge difference, but stil 5/6%
Also in the red resistance zone as back then. So we could see some rejection now. Back then it was just a small drop of 400 points, which can be seen as 300ish point at current price. So as long as we stay above the 12.000ish, this fractal stays alive. Don't follow it blindly, just use it as a possible road map if things do play out.
Previous fractal:
Note
Amazing how it's following this path almost to the point. With those strange moves yesterday, several wicks down around the same zone as Dec 2017. So far this fractal has played out decent to almost perfection for a while now, at this point i don't see another reason not to keep a close eye on it. Even the volume that was low when i posted it, increased quite a bit as well. Think a big break of 12k, would likely invalidate this fractal.
Note
Fractal is not out of play yet, but today's drop is much more violent and much higher volume as Dec 2017. Also the alts took some very big hits today, even before Bitcoin made the second bigger drop. So feels a bit weird what is going on today. I have posted some updates in my channel before the drop, showing a potential H&S that was in the making. We have touched the neckline, at the moment still not even a bounce yet to make the right shoulder. So it's looking very bad at this point, until we might be able to break 12300ish.Note
Looks like the neckline of the H&S still has value, just made a first real bounce up now. So think the worst might be over for now. Probably on it's way for a correctional wave up now. Don't know yet where it could end. Will try to update that laterNote
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