Bitcoin (BEARISH): At least one more drop likely before Lambos
With all the ETF hope and news in the air again, and the impressive amount of volume over the last few days, we reach that regular part of the cycle where the chorus of 'THE WORST IS OVER!! BITCOIN TO THE MOON!!" starts to be heard loudly once more.
I think we have a few more legs down before we're likely to complete the market cycle and start a recovery. We're still in a tight, descending wedge that has been in play and held since around the beginning of the year. That wedge doesn't come to a point until early November, at around 5k. Of course, we could break out of it a bit sooner.
Right now, BTC is hovering with indecision, attempting to break north of the $7590 zone to validate an inverse H&S pattern. That area has been tested a few times in the past several hours, but we've yet to break authoritatively above it. Meanwhile, we're still in the descending wedge. RSI is nearing overbought territory, and starting to show potential signs of stalling off.
I'm expecting BTC to test the bottom side of the wedge at around $5900 at least once more, before (hopefully) rebounding up and out. CBOE XBT contracts (Bitcoin Futures) expire tomorrow (18 July), so a quick pump of the market before dumping again wouldn't be a surprising move. Neatly, this also puts us testing the bottom of the wedge at around August 6th — which, historically, has been a very common date for shifts in BTC market direction. Although it hasn't held quite as true over the last couple of months (after starting to pick up some traction as an idea/observation - go figure), it will be interesting to see if it makes a resurgence.
I think we have a few more legs down before we're likely to complete the market cycle and start a recovery. We're still in a tight, descending wedge that has been in play and held since around the beginning of the year. That wedge doesn't come to a point until early November, at around 5k. Of course, we could break out of it a bit sooner.
Right now, BTC is hovering with indecision, attempting to break north of the $7590 zone to validate an inverse H&S pattern. That area has been tested a few times in the past several hours, but we've yet to break authoritatively above it. Meanwhile, we're still in the descending wedge. RSI is nearing overbought territory, and starting to show potential signs of stalling off.
I'm expecting BTC to test the bottom side of the wedge at around $5900 at least once more, before (hopefully) rebounding up and out. CBOE XBT contracts (Bitcoin Futures) expire tomorrow (18 July), so a quick pump of the market before dumping again wouldn't be a surprising move. Neatly, this also puts us testing the bottom of the wedge at around August 6th — which, historically, has been a very common date for shifts in BTC market direction. Although it hasn't held quite as true over the last couple of months (after starting to pick up some traction as an idea/observation - go figure), it will be interesting to see if it makes a resurgence.
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