--First of all, I want to state that I am not a financial advisor. My thoughts do not constitute investment advice.--
So I believe that the Russel 2000 and bitcoin mostly move together. We can agree on that. It is very rare when the two exchange rates show divergence. But in the vast majority of cases, when the Russel 2000 price falls, the bitcoin price tends to follow.
As you can see, the Russel 2000 exchange rate is taking pattern, the continuation of which is mostly not favorable for the exchange rate. If this happens in the near future, we can be almost certain that bitcoin will continue its downward path.
I'd be happy if I wasn't right, because I'm also tired of the bear market. It seems very long. But we have to prepare for the case that this trend continues...
--Some thoughts that can be stated as fact--
- on the weekly chart of bitcoin, the RSI ~53 level is key in determining the direction of the trends. Bearish trend below level 53. Bullish trend above level 53.
- the price of russel2000, when it falls, the price of bitcoin used to follow it in the long term
- the pattern emerging on russel2000's chart is not bullish
- russel2000 is an index that includes the riskiest stocks and companies (just like bitcoin is a risk instrument)
- technically, the bear trend has already broken
- no bull market yet
- The world economic situation is still hopeless (experts advise to calm down, but there is already a technical recession in several countries and inflation has started to increase)
- The Russian-Ukrainian war that has been going on for years does not want to end yet
All in all, things aren't looking too good yet. Now the only thing the market is clinging to is the SEC's decision on bitcoin ETFs. But I think the SEC is stalling as long as it can. Therefore, I do not expect a final decision on this matter before 2024.
Finally, don't forget to share your thoughts with me, whether you agree or disagree. I am open to all points of view. Fortunately, we don't see everything the same way. This is how we encourage each other to learn and think. <3
If you are interested in how I predicted the bull trend reversal and bitcoin fall in 2021, then check out my 2021 analysis, here.
If you are wondering how I predicted in 2022 that we will go down to the ~$18,000 range and then up to the ~30,000 dollar range, then look here.
If you like my idea and share it with others, I am very grateful. And thank you.
As you can see, at the moment I can imagine 2 directions. So my 100% bearish mood is starting to turn bullish. But I'm still cautious. And just like the market, I can't decide the direction 100%.
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