Here is a clear view of the patterns I'm watching with BTCUSD.
The main macro pattern is this ascending channel, drawn with a diagonal grey rectangle. Touch points on support and resistance are highlighted with red and green arrows. They are perfectly parallel, which increases my confidence in the validity of that range.
We also have an established pattern of spending 7+ weeks chopping within a price range before a decisive breakout. These ranging chops are highlighted here with rectangles.
How long will the current range of
59K-$71K continue? And will it break out to the upside or downside?
Well, since the bottom of the bear market, these ranges have broken to the upside every time. That is most likely to continue.
However, in the case it breaks to the downside, the bottom of the channel support is now at $51K and rising.
In the more likely case of an upside break, the resistance is around $125K and rising.
The play here in my personal situation, as a long-term BTC hodler looking to add more when capital becomes available, is to set buy orders at the bottom of the range at $59-60K, and also at $52-53K in case it breaks out to the downside. And, if it breaks to the upside from here, to be ready to buy on the breakout, anticipating much higher prices.
Good luck and enjoy!
The main macro pattern is this ascending channel, drawn with a diagonal grey rectangle. Touch points on support and resistance are highlighted with red and green arrows. They are perfectly parallel, which increases my confidence in the validity of that range.
We also have an established pattern of spending 7+ weeks chopping within a price range before a decisive breakout. These ranging chops are highlighted here with rectangles.
How long will the current range of
59K-$71K continue? And will it break out to the upside or downside?Well, since the bottom of the bear market, these ranges have broken to the upside every time. That is most likely to continue.
However, in the case it breaks to the downside, the bottom of the channel support is now at $51K and rising.
In the more likely case of an upside break, the resistance is around $125K and rising.
The play here in my personal situation, as a long-term BTC hodler looking to add more when capital becomes available, is to set buy orders at the bottom of the range at $59-60K, and also at $52-53K in case it breaks out to the downside. And, if it breaks to the upside from here, to be ready to buy on the breakout, anticipating much higher prices.
Good luck and enjoy!
Note
The wick to $56K went into my green "buy" range near the bottom support. It did not quite touch the support line. There has been a fast recovery to $63K, safely back into the previously highlighted range. At this point, I think it was a healthy sell off and buying opportunity, and my previous thesis remains unchanged.Note
BTC had a nice run up to $71.6 area today and has found resistance here near the top of the range. Notice how in the previous ranging periods, there was always a big candle to the top of the range that was rejected, sending price back into the mid to low part of the range for a few weeks or months. That scenario is very possible here.
My gut says that this is the start of a big run up through to new all time highs, and the post-halving bull market scenario actually plays out. The extension of this bull flag pattern sets the price target past the $90K range before the next ranging or correction period.
Note
Another 2 weeks in the range since my last comment. However, it looks to be gaining upwards momentum for another test of the top, now at $71,200. Will this be the big breakout of the range? Or are we going to get rejected again and spend more time chopping within the range? I think the breakout is coming soon. Let's see.Note
The key level now is $65K. If it holds, a breakout to the upside of this range is most likely. If it fails, the uptrend support line is invalidated, and this is more likely to break to the downside, below $60K and possibly even back into the $40Ks where the last range provides strong support.
Note
Price broke below my long term support line, and below $65,000. There is currently a bounce back to about $65,500, but it's still under the support line, now turned resistance.As much as I hate to do it, I now turn my highest probability expectations to BEARISH, with an expected retest of support around $56K.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.