Throughout Bitcoin's history it has had 11 Death Crosses (50DMA crossing under 200DMA), and 10 of those times price has retested the 200DMA within ~3 months (with 1 outlier).
Do you know what time it did NOT retest the 200DMA? You might have guessed it… this most recent death cross ☠️
The only outlier that price did not retest the 200DMA within ~3 months was in 2015, where it took nearly a year to retest.
In that time,
BTC ripped 200% just 75 days later, which marked the start of the PARABOLA.
This is why I have been so adamant with sticking to my base case for Bitcoin’s next move.
Is this time different? 🥸
Will it take nearly a year to retest the 200DMA?
An interesting observation I found was that if we take 90D from the most recent death cross, it brings us out to July 6th, which is right around when the 90-day pause of tariffs is lifted 🧐
Having said all that, if PA confidently breaks above and confirms previous ATH (~$110k), I will lean towards the 2015 outlier for the 200DMA retest, which would put us into late Q1 2026.
That would line up nicely with a suspected top of the cycle 🥲
Do you know what time it did NOT retest the 200DMA? You might have guessed it… this most recent death cross ☠️
The only outlier that price did not retest the 200DMA within ~3 months was in 2015, where it took nearly a year to retest.
In that time,
BTC ripped 200% just 75 days later, which marked the start of the PARABOLA.This is why I have been so adamant with sticking to my base case for Bitcoin’s next move.
Is this time different? 🥸
Will it take nearly a year to retest the 200DMA?
An interesting observation I found was that if we take 90D from the most recent death cross, it brings us out to July 6th, which is right around when the 90-day pause of tariffs is lifted 🧐
Having said all that, if PA confidently breaks above and confirms previous ATH (~$110k), I will lean towards the 2015 outlier for the 200DMA retest, which would put us into late Q1 2026.
That would line up nicely with a suspected top of the cycle 🥲
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.