This will likely be my last Bitcoin chart before I feel like we've confirmed our bottom and exited the bear market.
As you can see, three main resistance lines on the linear chart are holding us in check, all of which have been present since the beginning of 2018. These are the resistances that need to break in order to end the bear market, and it's anyone's guess as to how long this will take. The dark red is the main "meme triangle" resistance. The light blue is another triangle resistance since July 2018, and it is currently forming the top of our falling wedge. We briefly broke out from it in the fall, but the market was too weak to follow through. We almost bounced there when we first broke down from 6K, but it was the breakdown of that line that truly sent us into freefall. We have ultimately followed that downtrend from July until this very day. It has many touches––only one of which resulted in a breakout. Needless to say, that doesn't inspire confidence in the market. The bright red line is the ATH-tether pump-breakdown resistance. We've managed to hold above it/ride along it for a bit, but the more powerful resistance seems to be the light blue.
We still haven't tested the bottom of the wedge or the 200W EMA, so we may have to do that first if we're going to move up from here. If that fails to hold, we will likely have our "final" drop of the bear market. We then can judge the strength of the market based on the reaction to extreme lows and see if we have enough momentum to reverse and break our resistance lines. We'd need a huge spike in volume to do that, and for now, the volume is still weak.
Bitcoin also has support in a possible long term linear uptrend (in purple). Interestingly enough, this line converges nicely with the end of the falling wedge, and this could provide a powerful bounce. This is why my scenarios use this line as a potential pivot area.
The three scenarios outlined here aren't ALL the possible outcomes. These are all long term bullish scenarios. However, on a log scale we broke down from our major uptrend and are currently looking to form a new trend. The true bottom is anyone's guess. Bitcoin has been around for 10 years, and has recovered from much worse. It's unlikely to go to zero, but it could stall and flatline for many years.
My bearish targets for some top coins are as follows, IF we break down:
ETH - $24-27
LTC - $5-8
NEO - $3-4
XRP - $0.08-0.10
XLM - $0.01-0.03
TRX - $0.01 (will likely not achieve a new low, based on its strength)
This is not financial advice. This is for educational and speculative purposes only.
-Victor Cobra