BTCUSD: Looking Bullish in May
Updated
Since the beginning of May, Bitcoin has embarked on rather bullish looking wave structures, in response to the dive of late April that landed the coin just around the 57 k mark.
In Elliott Wave perspective, per the principle by which market structure is built, BTC has clearly completed a five-wave impulse, and has corrected this advance in a three-wave pullback, as seen in the chart.
In this price action, the downward trendline of April was decisively broken to the upside. It has now functioned as support which stopped the ABC correction. In addition, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for the entire five-wave impulse coincides with this price level. It is also apparent that a complete five-wave sequence may be identified in subwave C of the correction. It is therefore likely that this marks the end of this pullback, and that traders should expect a new uptrend in wave three, which might take the market to near the ATH.
A major obstacle to the upside remains however, the 200-period SMA on the 4 hour chart, indicated on this chart as the blue line. This is a major indicator for the market, and has limited the advance for wave five, as well as an attempt in April.
In Elliott Wave perspective, per the principle by which market structure is built, BTC has clearly completed a five-wave impulse, and has corrected this advance in a three-wave pullback, as seen in the chart.
In this price action, the downward trendline of April was decisively broken to the upside. It has now functioned as support which stopped the ABC correction. In addition, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for the entire five-wave impulse coincides with this price level. It is also apparent that a complete five-wave sequence may be identified in subwave C of the correction. It is therefore likely that this marks the end of this pullback, and that traders should expect a new uptrend in wave three, which might take the market to near the ATH.
A major obstacle to the upside remains however, the 200-period SMA on the 4 hour chart, indicated on this chart as the blue line. This is a major indicator for the market, and has limited the advance for wave five, as well as an attempt in April.
Note
The fib scaffold in the top chart is not for the current impulse, I turned on the wrong one. Here is the current version, it clearly shows a precise match of market the the 0.372 level at the end of wave C.Note
The larger view of the market is as follows.Note
The second wave correction went deeper than was apparent at first. The five waves down in wave C were just the first of five larger waves, taking the correction to the 50% retracement level. This is another very significant size for a second wave, and actually the more common one.The market is now on-course with our model. Let’s see whether the bears let it be.
Note
When most traders expect the least, the market does the opposite of common belief. Wyckoff had a similar expression like that a hundred years ago or so, perhaps 90.So we wake up with the market engaged in its third wave, just according the prediction of just a few.
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Late 2022 bitcoin hit a series of lows, and the FTX crash black swan put the nail in the coffin for the bear market. The crypto winter had been long, and it was all of a sudden clear that the end had been reached. Over Christmas, looking at my bitcoin savings account, I realized it was still bigger than in 2018 or so, despite the winter. And so I bought a new batch of BTC for about 19000 USD, because it was I knew that the time was right, and the Elliott Wave Principle told me that my intuition was aligned with the wave counts I could come with. The waves kept coming and falling in place. A new bull market was crystallizing. And I bought at 28, then 26, and 31 k or so. And the market kept confirming my counts. I started counting in public here that spring or summer 23. Check the charts. They were always bullish. And they were always correct qualitatively. I got counts wrong of course, and the market was confusingly complex at times, especially at the top before the 48 k barrier. I produced some nonsense, confused wave counts until I got it right. Then the first crash came in January 2024, and it fit perfectly with my counts of a completed five-wave bull run. Everyone correlated it with ETFs sell-off after the news, and other nonsense. It was always just the natural correction after five waves. Period. All sorts of clowns were screaming 20 k, and 10 k, even 8000, IIRC, and were painting large red and orange arrows into their charts. I bought again at about 42 k, after it became clear the bottom was in at 38.5 k. The screaming didn’t end of course, shear denial even when the market topped the line of death at 49 k, the goal post were moved to 52 k or so, “B waves can always overextend”. Sure, but Elliott told me that it wasn’t a B wave. This was a bull market, and how it could not be so, since for 15 years Bitcoin has shown us its rhythm like clockwork: a four-year cycle based on the enthusiasm in traders and need for miners it spurns from its mining reward halvings, and the associated perception of scarcity. The halving was still three months away, and a new ATH 20000 points. Yet I predicted that we would see a new ATH by the first half March, and a 100000 price mark for the halving. Well, the second target was way off, but the trajectory was right which I didn’t abandon for I knew that Metcalf’s law was still operational, and Bitcoin could not possibly stray away very far from its power law fair value, which cannot survive without a market bubble. And the bubble we had not yet seen. Power law growth is the physics of bitcoin, it was true in 2010, is true now, and will be true in 10 years, unless there is some kind of singularity that becomes dominant in one of bitcoin’s properties that we haven’t discovered yet. This calls for a separate post in the future. In any case… the market continued forward and upward for a new ATH, and completed five waves up right before the old ATH, the very meaningful target in the psychological framework of the trader herd. Subconscious or not, as the bears kept roaring that this would be the top for months to come, the market obeyed after printing a strained ATH and went into correction. Of course. The market goes up in five waves, and then goes down in three. But no, the goal post had already been moved, red arrows relocated but still pointing all the way to the 20s. All rubbish. Elliott tells us the future. The correction was very shallow, and people’s memory of far deeper corrections four years ago had vanished. Surely this was the end of bitcoin for now. No it wasn’t, just a minor period of compression, actually a serious of correction wave 4, short diagonal wave 5, and post fifth wave correction, that made this whole time seem much longer because people don’t know how to count waves. I made some mistakes too. Good old Wyckoff gave the explanation that markets confuse the trader as long as possible, until they turn corners so fast that people can’t react in time to change their frame of minds. I am paraphrasing in my own words, I think. Anyways, enough people still don’t belief in the laws of bitcoin physics, and paint dark pictures in their charts.
May is here and Bitcoin is still in a strong bull market. Don’t believe me or your stuck frame of mind…believe in the charts. And believe in the waves. They are pointing up to finally start the real bull market of 2024 and 2025.
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So, the market is finally showing us its mojo, and confirming the analysis in my posts.As always, See you at the top.
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I don’t think I have changed anything in this chart for a while. Not needed really. The market following just fine as this update shows. Approaching 72000. 
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