Zoom out and see the bigger picture for Bitcoin
First of all, I'm extremely bullish on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies long term. I think they have tremendous fundamental value, and this is not a fad that is just going to pass. In saying that, I do not believe we are about to enter another bull run. Almost every long-term indicator suggests that we need a substantial period of consolidation after the mayhem of Q3 and Q4 of 2017. I understand the market conditions were different in 2014-2015 (Mt. Gox hack etc), but there is arguably a comparable amount of FUD floating around these days too (regulation, market manipulation, more hacks). My guess is that we will see a retest of the most prominent trendline in all of BTC's history before we enter the next bull market. This timing should coincide with a large amount of adoption of cryptocurrencies into our every day lives. We're already starting to see adoption on a small level, but its just not quite there yet. You might believe so, but remember you're currently part of a niche group of people interested in this space, and we need the general public to believe what you and I believe before we see that kind of adoption (and corresponding price growth).
From a technical analysis standpoint:
(TA has its limitations, but I think where it works best is when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, and keep it simple)
On the monthly chart
- See chart for the long-term trendline in white. I think we should see it tested around the end of 2018/start of 2019.
- Notice the cyclic nature of the RSI. We need to reset the monthly RSI back to around 44-50.
- The death cross and cross below the 12 month MA (blue line) have only happened once before in bitcoin's lifetime - in mid 2014. This substantiates my belief that we will see this current scenario play out in a similar fashion.
I'm not going to throw out a prediction for a price target by a particular date, as the only thing I am certain of is that I will be wrong. In terms of my own trading strategy, I am going to be accumulating on dips for the next 6 months or so. If you're a fan of Wyckhoff style analysis, this is a prime example of an accumulation phase. If institutional/smart money is coming in, they're creeping in slowly in times like these. One thing I won't be doing is day trading. That's a surefire way for us retail investors to get absolutely rekd in this market. You can do whatever you want.
Anyway, I'm sure a whole lot of people will lambaste me for throwing out FUD and a lack of confidence in this market, but I don't really mind. Throw it at me lol. I wrote this cause I was bored of working on my PhD, so by all means make this more entertaining for me.
From a technical analysis standpoint:
(TA has its limitations, but I think where it works best is when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, and keep it simple)
On the monthly chart
- See chart for the long-term trendline in white. I think we should see it tested around the end of 2018/start of 2019.
- Notice the cyclic nature of the RSI. We need to reset the monthly RSI back to around 44-50.
- The death cross and cross below the 12 month MA (blue line) have only happened once before in bitcoin's lifetime - in mid 2014. This substantiates my belief that we will see this current scenario play out in a similar fashion.
I'm not going to throw out a prediction for a price target by a particular date, as the only thing I am certain of is that I will be wrong. In terms of my own trading strategy, I am going to be accumulating on dips for the next 6 months or so. If you're a fan of Wyckhoff style analysis, this is a prime example of an accumulation phase. If institutional/smart money is coming in, they're creeping in slowly in times like these. One thing I won't be doing is day trading. That's a surefire way for us retail investors to get absolutely rekd in this market. You can do whatever you want.
Anyway, I'm sure a whole lot of people will lambaste me for throwing out FUD and a lack of confidence in this market, but I don't really mind. Throw it at me lol. I wrote this cause I was bored of working on my PhD, so by all means make this more entertaining for me.
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